DB Today -Global/Macro
Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Jim Reid. Markets spent yesterday mostly waitin...
Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Jim Reid. Markets spent yesterday mostly waiting for Catalan President CarlesPuigdemont’s address last night to the regional parliament. It seemed he’dincreasingly been boxed in by differences of opinion within his own coalition andalso the fact that 6 of the 7 Catalonian based companies in the IBEX 35 havemade strong overtures towards relocating their legal bases away from the region. Given that his options had seemingly been reduced over recent days he played hishand relatively well by saying the referendum had given the region a mandate forindependence but that they would hold off for now to enter into dialogue with PMRajoy and his administration. He said “we propose the suspension of the effectsof the declaration of independence for a few weeks, to open a period of dialogue”. European Equity Strategy - Weekly Fund Flows - Andreas Bruckner. Last week was filled with rising political uncertainties in Europe, as Catalonia'ssecessionist movement took a violent turn and Theresa May's party conferencespeech was met with on- and offstage disruptions. For UK equity funds this meantbusiness as usual with average but persistent outflows, while investors pulledmore money out of Spanish equity funds in the past week than in any sinceNovember 2014. Yet this did not stop broader European equity funds to record thefifth week of consecutive inflows buoyed by the rise in Euro area macro surpriseson the back of strong PMI prints. On the other side of the Atlantic, and despite thelocal stock market's winning run, US equity funds posted outflows for the 19thtime in the past 23 weeks. FX Strategy - FX Daily - George Saravelos. Let's start with the good news. Even though volatility is low and uncertaintyaround key macro questions high there does not appear to be a structural declinein the excess returns available to FX investors. Our Deutsche Bank currency index(dbCR) was launched more than a decade ago and captures the "beta" in FXmarket returns by following a simple carry, valuation and momentum strategy. Returns have been remarkably stable since the advent of free-floating exchangerates and very resilient to the global financial crisis. This year the dbCR is down2% - mostly hurt by poor performance in G10 FX carry - but a rolling 2-year Sharperatio is well within historical ranges
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