研报日期：2017-08-31

　　南方航空(600029)　　11% earnings decline caused by higher fuel cost, but offset by FX gain　　China Southern Airlines (CSA) reported 11.8% YoY increase in 1H17 revenue,on the back of 12.5% passenger traffic (RPK) YoY growth, offset by 2.0% YoYyield decline due to competitive pressure, in our view. Yet with 1) a 50.1% YoYjump in fuel cost on higher fuel price, and 2) 10.6% YoY increase in ex-fueloperating cost, the airline recorded a 35.0% YoY decrease in 1H17 operatingprofit. At the bottom line, helped by a FX gain of RMB561m (vs. a 1H16 FX lossof RMB1.5bn), CSA recorded 11.1% YoY 1H17 net profit decline to RMB2.8bn.If stripping out the FX impact, CSA’s 1H17 recurring net profit decreased by52.3% YoY.　　Deutsche Bank view – competition in international routes to cap upside　　Since CSA’s 1H17 net profit accounts for 50% of our full-year estimate and48% of consensus, we consider the results as in line. In July, CSA recorded astable 11.3% YoY RPK growth, with a robust 17.9% YoY growth ininternational passenger traffic. Going forward, we expect the growth rate tonormalize slightly in 2H17, with mild YoY growth in domestic yield and somedecline in international yield. Meanwhile, CSA is still subject to increasingcompetition for the SE Asia/Australia/New Zealand routes from other airlines,including LCCs. Together with higher fuel cost, we still expect CSA’s FY17operating profit to be under pressure and maintain a Hold rating on the CSA-Hshares. In addition, given the valuation premium over the H-shares, we rateCSA’s A-shares a Sell. We will provide more update after the company’sconference call on 30 August.[Deutsche Bank AG][点击查看PDF原文] 今日最新研究报告

声明：如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益，请联系邮箱：wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。