An overlooked A-share hydro name

伏民俄

(发表于: 国投电力股吧更新时间: )

我要评论赞(23859)

An overlooked A-share hydro name 查看PDF原文

研报日期：2017-09-04

　　国投电力(600886)　　Better earnings stability than a thermal peer, more upside than hydro peers　　SDIC enjoys higher earnings visibility, as well as stability, than thermal powerpeers, due to its 57% capacity exposure to hydropower. Over 2016-1H17,almost all the earnings came from the hydro segments. Meanwhile, SDIC’sthermal business can also benefit from accelerating supply-side reform andyear-end tariff hikes. We expect SDIC to turn FCF positive starting in 2018,thanks to earnings recovery and better capex discipline, indicating potentialupside to our assumed 35% payout ratio and dividend yield of 3%. Relative toYangtze Power, SDIC is an overlooked A-share hydro name, with an attractivevaluation and similarly strong hydro capacity pipeline. Reiterating Buy.　　Positive tariff outlook, better capex discipline, improving free cash flow　　SDIC’s 1H17 results were slightly below expectation, with a 13/37% yoydecline in reported/recurring net profit, but still much better than thermalpeers, which are near breakeven. Thermal tariff recovered by 7.5% yoy, due toa lower DPS discount. Hydro tariff dropped 6% yoy in 1H17 but the decliningtrend slowed in the second quarter. Management expects the discount tonarrow going forward, with less competition from peers. Furthermore, its interprovincialhydro power sales tariff should benefit from the thermal tariff hike inJuly and potentially another round at year-end. In response to supply-sidereform, SDIC is delaying three coal-fired generation units (total 3GW) and plansno other thermal capacity additions over 2017-19E. We expect its free cashflow to reach c.Rmb8.0bn in 2018/19E, supporting a stable dividend outlook[Deutsche Bank AG][点击查看PDF原文] 今日最新研究报告

提示：本文属于研究报告栏目，仅为机构或分析人士对一只股票的个人观点和看法，并非正式的新闻报道，本网不保证其真实性和客观性，一切有关该股的有效信息，以沪深交易所的公告为准，敬请投资者注意风险。

声明：如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益，请联系邮箱：wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。

锺企步

朕已阅

2017-09-04 18:06:32
回复
闵徒春

英文的我看不懂

2017-09-04 18:06:54
回复
束行培

buy?!

2017-09-04 18:07:58
回复
齐臣匹

利好消息！

2017-09-04 18:10:18
回复
夏炷丸

这是德意志银行的研报

2017-09-04 18:12:24
回复
苍个唯

我去……

2017-09-04 18:19:21
回复
怀长爹

法科

2017-09-04 18:20:26
回复
方两

香港和国际主流市场电力这种公用事业股估值重心大约13倍……但海外的电力股一般是发电输电供电一体化的，成长性基本上没有，但利润十分稳定

2017-09-04 18:21:47
回复
荣松

3个月目标价7.42，12个月目标价8.5，然后今天跌成这个屎样。

2017-09-04 18:39:33
回复
蓟姣艾

12个月目标价8.5元！52周目标价8.3元到6.49元！

2017-09-04 18:42:41
回复
陈斗岭

2017年目标价7.42元！

2017-09-04 18:43:40
回复
许常斤

目标价12元

2017-09-04 18:46:56
回复
雍便非

老外的研报反过来看的准确率高到90%……过去的经验

2017-09-04 18:50:09
回复
沙坦牟

中移动大摩才给70……净资产已经60

2017-09-04 18:52:10
回复
通曲奚

什么意思，看不懂。

2017-09-04 20:30:16
回复
陶奸匠

买入评级，12月目标价8.5元

2017-09-04 20:48:25
回复
印祭穴

老外不管他唱多唱空都不用理他……两年前恒大5不到没有一个机构看好，都是卖出；现在20多，目标价到成了30多……听老外的赚钱的机会会错过，亏损的机会反而逃不了

2017-09-04 22:27:29
回复
步婆容

洋鬼子也学会忽悠了？

2017-09-05 09:20:16
回复
后栅

做“二四三一”s

2017-09-05 17:27:51
回复
首页上一页 1 下一页末页