研报日期：2016-06-02

　　GUOXUAN HIGH-TECH(002074)　　Most leveraged major player to EV lithium battery; initiating with Buy　　Guoxuan is the fourth-largest EV lithium battery player in China, in terms ofsales in 2015. It is also the most leveraged major player on the stock market tothe EV lithium battery business, which is set to contribute 90% of its revenueand 94% of its gross profit in 2016. We believe Guoxuan’s aggressive capacityexpansion and competitive advantages should help it to grow market sharesignificantly and make it a major beneficiary of the Chinese government’starget to put 5mn EV units on the road by end-2020. We initiate with a Buy.　　Quick growth rate of EV sales　　China EV sales rose to 331k units last year, up 340% YoY, driven by bothimprovements in demand and government stimulus. The Chinese governmentplans to put 5m units on the road by the end of 2020. We expect China EVsales to grow 27%/57%/36% in the next three years, generating 19/30/39 Gwhlithium battery demand in our forecast years. We believe EV sales will likelyrally in 2H16 after the renewal of subsidy policies in June.　　EV lithium battery focus with aggressive expansion　　Guoxuan High-Tech has been focused on producing EV lithium batteries sinceits establishment and this segment is set to contribute 90% of its revenue and94% of its gross profit in 2016. This makes it the most leveraged stock to EVlithium batteries in the market. The company has a very aggressive expansionplan and total capacity should expand from c.0.16Gwh in 2011 to c. 8.9Gwh in2018, with a CAGR of 78%. Though the group’s operating margin will likely fallfrom a high level of 27% in 2015 to 20% in 2020, driven by lower ASP, strongvolume growth should push the bottom line higher in the next three years.　　The strong will likely become stronger　　We expect Guoxuan to catch up with industry peers and gain more marketshare due to its stronger competitiveness, stemming from 1) first-moveradvantage, as it is already listed as one of the……[德意志银行][点击查看PDF原文] 今日最新研究报告

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