研报日期：2016-08-01

　　皖通高速(600012)　　We adjust our estimates to factor in stronger-than-forecastgrowth as per 1Q16A experience? Upgrade H-share to Buy from Hold with new TP of HKD7.20(from HKD7.10); raise A-share TP to RMB6.30 from RMB6.00We adjust our estimates for Anhui Expressway to factor in the 1Q16A results intoour estimates.Toll revenue growth tracking ahead of estimates: 1Q16A toll revenue has grown9%, which is ahead of our previous FY16 estimate of 4.5% growth. We have adjustedup our 1H16 revenue growth assumptions to be in-line with the 1Q16A experience,and have increased our FY16 toll revenue growth estimates to 6.3%.Stronger-than-forecast traffic growth offsetting decline in ARPV: Toll revenuegrew 13% y-o-y in 1Q16. This offset the 5% decline in average revenue per vehicleas a result of declining freight traffic relative to passenger vehicles on AnhuiExpressways roads, resulting in the stronger-than-forecast toll revenue growth.Earnings adjustments: We make minor earnings adjustments that factor in thehigher toll revenue growth; however, this is offset by a near-term increase in financecosts. As a result, we adjust down our FY16-17e earnings estimates by 0.3% and1.3%, respectively. Our revised adjusted earnings forecasts are 1% and -3%consensus estimates, respectively, for FY16-17e.Upgrade H-share to Buy, maintain Reduce on A-share: We upgrade our H-sharerating to Buy from Hold and maintain Reduce rating on A-share. H-share hasdeclined 7% YTD; if the stronger 1Q traffic is maintained throughout 2H16, we thinkthere may be positive momentum on the stock. Despite the mild negative earningsgrowth forecast over the coming few years, we think this has already been more thanfactored into the company’s valuations, with the H-share trading at 8.7x FY16 PER,which is below the H-share’s longer-term average historical 1-year forward PER of~10x. With over 100% premium on the A-share, we maintain our Reduce rating onthe stock. Downside risks for the H-shares include deterioration in fr…… 今日最新研究报告

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