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Thailand Infrastructure:Fasten your seat belts

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.09.07 16:00:04   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 127 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

THB152bn of tenders could appear in next four months. The government ispreparing to tender a ...

THB152bn of tenders could appear in next four months. The government ispreparing to tender a series of mega-projects starting in September 2017. Sevenpackages of double-track railway projects worth THB61bn are slated for tender inSeptember. Another three packages of signalling contracts for these routes worthTHB12bn may also be tendered in 4Q17, along with two expressway contracts worthTHB46bn and one motorway contract worth THB11bn.    THB607bn of tenders slated for 2018. These could include the four major MRTlines (Purple, Orange, Green and Red), the second batch of seven packages ofdouble-track rail projects, and the airport rail line extension.    CH Karnchang (CK TB) is our top pick, with 30% upside: We think the marketis underestimating the profit contribution from CK’s three large investments andthe corresponding investment value. In this report, we raise our profit estimatesby 7-17% for 2017-18e. Our forecasts for 2017-19e are now 14-20% aboveconsensus. Our SOTP based target price is unchanged at THB36.80.    Sino Thai E&C (STEC TB) is our second pick, with 18% upside: For STEC,we push back revenue recognition for a few new large projects by two years.    Hence, our 2017-19e revenue and profit estimates decline by 9-24% and ourDCF-based target price falls by 13% from THB34.40 to THB29.80. However, wecontinue to like STEC for its strong net cash balance sheet and track record.

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