This upcoming week, geo-political risks will again dominatethe headlines following the 6th and by-far the most powerfulnuclear test by North Korea on Saturday (2 Sep). As forcentral bank from G7, there will the Bank of Canada (BOC)(6 Sep) and the European Central Bank (ECB) (7 Sep)with monetary policy decisions among the G7 economies.    According to Bloomberg (as of 5 Sep), only 5 out of 26forecasters expect BOC to hike rates by another 25 bpsto 1.0%. Meanwhile, we expect the ECB to keep monetarypolicy status unchanged but the Governing Council may startdiscussing plans to normalize monetary policy in the form ofslowing its asset purchases gradually. As for the US FederalReserve, there will be Fed Beige Book report in the midweek(6 Sep) and several FOMC voters speaking in publicforums this week (including Brainard, Kaplan & Kashkari on5 Sep, and Dudley on 7 Sep) but no sight of FOMC JanetYellen yet. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic will alsobe in his public forum since assuming office in March. Heis non-voter in 2017 FOMC but will rotate into a voting rolein 2018. Note that the US and Canada will have a longweekend as they celebrate Labor Day on today (4 Sep). ).    After the Labor Day holiday, market attention will very quicklyreturn to US domestic politics as the US Congress willreconvene on 5 Sep (Tues) after their August recess. Thedisastrous Hurricane Harvey may have helped “convince”US Congress to avoid a US government shutdown anda fight over raising the debt ceiling limit this month as theCongress may combine emergency aid for Harvey victimsin September with stopgap government funding and a debtlimitincrease. Attention will be on the damage to Texas, US,in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey and as reports estimatethe cost of damages by Harvey range widely from US$50bnto US$190bn, and could well exceed that of Katrina (2005)which was at US$125bn (US$160bn in current dollars). Asfor the data docket for the developed economies, we lookforward to US July factory orders and durable goods orders(5 Sep), Japan Jul labor cash earnings (6 Sep), US Julytrade balance (6 Sep), and the final print for Japan’s 2QGDP (8 Sep).    On Monday (4 Sep), we have Japan’s August monetary basewhich grew by a faster pace of 16.3%y/y (from 15.6% in Jul)to reach JPY469.2 trillion at end-August. In Europe, we willhave the UK August construction PMI, the September Sentixinvestor confidence survey from Eurozone and July PPI fromthe Eurozone.    So far, market reaction at the start of Asia trade to theescalation of tension in the Korean peninsula appears to bemuted. As widely expected, there is some knee jerk sell-off in the KRW and South Korean equities, but the magnitudewas less than previous recent episodes of sell-off acrossAugust. USD/JPY remained relatively stable just under 110with the TOPIX opening down a modest 0.4%. Gold had a$10 boost from last Friday’s close of $1,325 / oz to currenttrading level of $1,335 / oz.

声明：如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益，请联系邮箱：wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。