SINGAPORE: The Streets Roar To Life With Annual F1 Night Race, Data Focus Is On August NODX (18 Sep)    Singapore’s key tourism event on the calendar happens this week with the Singapore F1 night race (15-17 Sep). Singapore data picks up at the start of the new week with August non-oil domestic exports (18 Sep) where we expect 10.8%y/y (-1.0%m/m) while attention may also fall on the COE auction (20 Sep) which in the last auction saw premiums falling to multi-year lows.    KEY ASIAN ECONOMIES: Asian Central Banks of CBC, BSP & BI In Focus, NZ Election Looms On 23 Sep    Asia-Pacific central banks of Taiwan (CBC) (21 Sep), Philippines (BSP) (21 Sep) and Indonesia (BI) (22 Sep) have monetary policy decisions this week and while we expect all the central banks to maintain status quo, most attention may be on BI which surprised markets in August with a 25bps rate cut. We do not expect that August rate cut to be the start of a new rate easing cycle in Indonesia given that there are clear risks in doing so when US remains on monetary tightening. The Asian data calendar will be headlined by Chinese August property prices (18 Sep), Malaysia August CPI (20 Sep), Taiwan August export orders (20 Sep), New Zealand’s 2Q GDP (21 Sep), South Korea’s first 20 days exports and imports data for Sep (21 Sep) and Taiwan August industrial production (22 Sep). Reserve Bank of Australia will release its September rate meeting minutes (19 Sep) while RBA Governor will give a speech in Perth (21 Sep). As for politics, attention will be on New Zealand election on Sat (23 Sep) which remains too to call.    US AND DEVELOPED ECONOMIES: FOMC & BOJ Decisions, 23 Sep German Federal Election In Focus    Market attention for US will be on the Federal Reserve as the FOMC takes place on 19/20 Sep (decision on 21 Sep, 2am SG time), accompanied by an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a scheduled press conference by FOMC Chair Yellen (21 Sep, 2:30am SG time). We expect the Fed to announce its balance sheet reduction (BSR) program in Sep FOMC (and to be implemented in Oct 2017). The Congress deal (on 6 Sep) to combine emergency aid for Hurricane Harvey victims with a temporary increase in the US debt ceiling limit and finance government spending till 15 Dec 2017 should be good enough for the Fed to proceed on with BSR rather than to risk delaying the decision to Dec (which could be met with another Congressional battle). And even as we still factor in another 25bps Fed rate hike in Dec FOMC, we do note that the “postponed Congressional battle” may have an impact on our Dec projection. We will be closely following any revision to Fed’s projections especially their inflation outlook which may materially alter rate hike trajectory expectations. The other major central bank will be the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with a monetary policy decision on Thurs (21 Sep, likely between 10:30am and 2pm SG time) but this is expected to be a non-event (no change to current policy stance) and there is no update to their economic projections too. The US data will probably come in secondary to the FOMC and focus will be US housing-related data. As for rest of the developed economies, key data will be Japan Aug trade & UK Aug retail sales (both on 21 Sep) and the prelim Sep Markit PMI for various countries (22 Sep). Note that Japan will celebrate Respect-for-the-Aged Day holiday on 18 Sep (Mon). As for politics, attention will be on the German federal election on 24 Sep (Sun) where incumbent Chancellor Merkel look set to return to power for another term. Political risk in the Eurozone has been fading, particularly following the French election. While Germany and possibly Italy will go to the polls later in the year, we do not expect any major market or economic consequences from these elections.

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