Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler    We expect a tactical pull-back to 360on the Stoxx 600: European equities havefallen by almost 5% from their mid-May peak (from 396to 378). We think this pullbackhas further to go, as Euro area PMIs fade from elevated levels and a strongeuro weighs on European earnings. Our tactical Stoxx 600model points to a localtrough of around 360by late October (around 5% below current levels). This isbased on the assumption that: a) Euro area PMIs fall from the current 55.5to53.3by year-end (consistent with 0.5% qoq GDP growth in Q4, or 2% annualised,in line with the recent upward revision from our economists); b) the euro tradeweightedindex rises by a further 1% (in line with our FX strategists’ forecasts);and c) real bond yields increase by a further 40bps (based on our fixed incomestrategists’ rates projections). The expected drag from these factors is only partlyoffset by a projected further fall in Europe’s political uncertainty index (from thecurrent level of 220to the 10-year average of 175) and a further rise in the oil priceto $55/bbl (in line with our commodity analysts’ projections).    Europe - US Economic Perspectives - Peter Hooper    With US growth having picked up in Q2as expected, but inflation continuingto disappoint to the downside, we update our outlook for the US economy overthe next year and a half. Relative to our forecast three months ago, we seegrowth ahead modestly softer than previously, near-term inflation a bit weaker,and the pace of Fed rate hikes in 2018slightly slower. We focus especially onthe inflation picture, where we consider the case for a more fundamental andsustained downshift in inflation relative to our baseline forecast.    Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Jim Reid    Yesterday saw the Dow (+0.3%) clear 22000for the first time, meaning that MrTrump can now add it to his collection of stock market landmarks on his watch.The Dow first touched 19000just over a week after his election victory. The S&P500(+0.05%) edged higher but both were slightly flattered by Apple (+4.73%)after its optimistic guidance the previous evening. Of the S&P 500, 299stocksactually declined.

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