Global market-based measures of credit risk were higher over the past week. Crude oilprices rose over the week 6.9% to a two-year high of $49.16on September 6. Gulf coastrefinery and pipeline activity is gradually returning to normal and inventories rebuilt afterHurricane Harvey’s catastrophic effect. In the midst of it, the US southeast is bracing forHurricane Irma, described as the worst hurricane on record. The United States’ SovereignEDFTM (Expected Default Frequency) metric1, which measures the expected probability ofdefault over a five-year time horizon, increased over the past week by 0.01% to 0.07%.。    Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region’s average Sovereign EDF measure increased from 0.21%to 0.23% over the past seven days. Within the region South Korea, China, and Japanexperienced the greatest sovereign EDF increases.。    North Korean supreme leader Kim Jung-un continues his intensive pursuit of nuclearweapons. In response the governments in Washington D.C., Seoul, and Tokyo, as well asthe UN, have been pushing for stronger sanctions, such as cutting off oil supplies to NorthKorea. South Korea’s unification ministry spokeswoman Eugene Lee said on September 8thatPyongyang could potentially conduct its next missile tests on either September 10or aroundOctober 10, a North Korean holiday marking the founding of its ruling party.。    South Korea’s Sovereign EDF rose significantly over the past week from 0.23% to 0.28%,its highest reading since 2013. The country’s five-year Sovereign EDF converts to a marketimpliedrating of Baa2. This is still investment grade, although it is six notches below Moody’sInvestors Service agency rating of Aa2for the sovereign.。

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