Credit Markets Review and Outlook。    By John Lonski, Chief Economist, Moody’s Capital Markets Research, Inc.。    Jobless Rate’s Waning Influence on Inflation and the Fed。    The minutes of the July 25-26meeting of the FOMC indicated that Fed policymakers have becomeincreasingly concerned about persistently soft consumer prices despite higher rates of resourceutilization, including the lowest unemployment rate in 16years. In response, fed funds futures recentlyassigned only a 44.4% likelihood to a year-end 2017midpoint for the fed funds rate that is higher thanits current 1.125%. Policymakers and some market participants worry that if underlying inflation slowswhen rates of resource utilization climb, then a destructive bout of price deflation might arrive onceresource utilization rates inevitably ease.。    Ordinarily, price inflation accelerates following a decline by the unemployment rate. However, despite aplunge by the unemployment rate’s moving three-month average from July 2012’s 8.2% to July 2017’s4.3%, the average annual rate of core PCE price index inflation also ebbed from 1.9% to 1.5%. In alllikelihood, this is the slackest and most non-inflationary 4.3% jobless rate in history.。    The unemployment rate’s moving three-month average last fell to 4.3% for the span-ended February1999. However, the 2.5% yearly increase by the average hourly wage of the three-months-ended July2017was noticeably slower than the 3.6% of the three-months-ended February 1999. Partly because offaster wage growth, the 4.3% jobless rate of early 1999packed a lot more punch for consumer spendingaccording to wage & salary income’s 7.3% annual advance of the three-months-ended February 1999compared to its much slower 2.6% prospective yearly rise of May-July 2017.。

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