US Refiners: 2H17to remain supportive, but post-hurricane upside largelypriced in    We are updating our 3Q/4Q estimates for the US refiners, and although we seematerial upside to current estimates (15%/35% in 3Q/4Q, respectively), we seetailwinds as largely priced into the group at this point, particularly at non-GulfCoast exposed names. We expect solid fundamentals (transitioning into a 2018look-forward) to maintain the group relatively well bid, or at least defensive, butsee greater relative support/lower risk from here at ANDV and MPC.    We see 15% upside to current street ests for 3Q; but keep an eye on captureheadwinds    We see ~15% upside on average to current estimates across the group into 3Q,however, post-hurricane momentum has pushed the 'upper-end' of consensus toa 10% premium vs. our revised estimates and prompt us to acknowledge the riskthat the market may fail to discount the fundamental capture head-winds (RINS +40% QoQ, narrowing heavy/light spreads, reduced backwardation, and an underappreciatedmove to premium by unbranded gasoline) at play during the quarter.Expected retail weakness looks to be largely discounted in the shares with thespread between "upper-end" and "avg" street ests only ~15%-20% for ANDV/MPC/PSX vs. 30%-35% for the non-retail exposed refiners. We see the greatestrisk to 3Q ests at PBF, HFC, and PSX (chemicals exposure a notable head-windfollowing CP Chem/Cedar-Bayou outages) with DBe EPS 22%/15%/12% lowerthan the 'upper-end' of street ests, while ANDV and MPC appear less exposed.    We expect a slower recovery in refining capacity to underpin a 'higher forlonger' margin environment in 4Q; we see ~35% upside to current streetestimates    We see ~35% upside to 4Q street ests, with several 3Q capture headwindsshowing signs of abating (domestic/int'l light diffs widening, wholesale dynamicsnormalizing, ethanol economics, and contango structure steepening) and amore gradual recovery in GC refining capacity further supporting margins. Withconversations suggesting a material inflection in retail margins in September, andlittle evidence of 'opportunistic' maintenance deferrals, we remain constructivethe group into 4Q. We see the greatest potential for positive revisions at MPC(60%/8% vs. avg/'upper-end' consensus estimates) and VLO (low hurdle with'upper-end' ests only 18% higher than the avg). We see sustainability in thedistillate crack (and company light product mix) as a key risk to the outlook, with

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