With the hawkish outcome from the latest FOMC meeting, EM FX has been on theback foot. This plays into our thesis that ‘lightning can strike’. EM FX weakness shouldbe temporary. Looking beyond the Fed, there are other drivers at play – for instance,the recent rally in oil prices, the EUR’s stalling appreciation and the RMB’s emergingtwo-way volatility. Against a soft USD backdrop, EM FX differentiation will persist.    In Asia, we expect USD-RMB to exhibit much larger two-way movements in thecoming years to reflect more ‘clean floating’ characteristics. Additionally, we havelowered our USD-Asia forecasts – expecting stability and, in some cases, modestappreciation versus the USD from here. Within Asia, we expect the INR, IDR, RMBand MYR to outperform the KRW and TWD. Meanwhile, we believe the various Bankof Thailand (BoT) measures could at least throw some sand in the wheels for USDTHBin the near term. Elsewhere, we outline the paths ahead for the HKD.    In CEEMEA, we give a roundup of our new forecasts for the PLN, HUF, CZK andRUB. We also discuss five variables that are likely to be key for TRY-ZAR’s direction.    There are potentially more TRY-supportive surprises on growth and monetary policythan for the ZAR. Also, sovereign rating risk and political uncertainty for the ZAR lookset to increase towards the end of the year. Four out of the five drivers suggest thatthe TRY should outperform the ZAR in the coming months.    In LatAm, we dig deeper into the MXN in the light of NAFTA renegotiations. Morerelevant to the MXN outlook in the long term is how the country’s trade balance andfuture FDI will be impacted by the modernisation of the rules of origin and theinclusion of new sectors. We also have revised forecasts for the UYU. We expect astable to moderately stronger path for the UYU until the end of this year.

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