Commentary for Monday: This week’s data docket would normally sharpenforecasters’ expectations for current quarter growth. However, uncertaintyaround weather-related disruptions likely render August durable goods orders(Wednesday), the advanced goods trade balance (Thursday) and personal income(Friday) less useful with respect to gauging underlying trends. The deluge ofFedspeak will likely receive more attention, most notably Chair Yellen’s keynoteaddress at an NABE conference in Cleveland on Tuesday. The topic of Yellen’sspeech will be “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy”. We expect the Chairto reiterate many of the themes touched upon in her post-FOMC press conference.    Recall that Yellen emphasized in her opening statement and in the Q&A that,barring negative surprises in the months just ahead, the Fed is on track to raiserates once more this year and three times in 2018. She recognized that inflationhas been running low recently, and that while there was some uncertainty aroundthis performance, one-off factors that are not expected to persist, and which havenot been associated with the performance of the broader economy, have beenimportant. At the same time, Yellen noted that monetary policy operates with alag and that labor market tightness will eventually push inflation up. The currentlow level of inflation allows the Fed to move relatively slowly and cautiously. At thesame time, as Yellen noted, job growth has continued at an impressive pace, wellabove that which is needed to stabilize unemployment. With the unemploymentrate already below NAIRU and expected to fall further, it is seen as prudent tomake further progress in a tightening direction. In short, we expect Yellen to stickto the script that as long as the growth outlook remains robust, the Fed’s strategyof gradual removal of accommodation remains the order of the day.    Prior to Yellen, we will hear from the NY Fed President Dudley, Chicago’s Evansand Minneapolis’ Kashkari on Monday. All three are FOMC voters this year. Whilewe are reasonably confident that Dudley is aligned with Yellen in anticipatinganother rate hike by yearend and Kashkari may dissent, Evans is a bit of a questionmark. He has tended to lean dovish in the past but his recent comments haveindicated that as long as the outlook for inflation—i.e., steady growth and atightening labor market—is “headed back to 2%” he still thought it reasonableto “follow through on the Fed’s gradual adjustment process.” In this respect, we will be paying close attention to how Evans’ outlook may be evolving, especiallyin light of the latest CPI data.

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