Europe - Focus Europe - Mark Wall    After a rather uninspiring campaign Germany is going to the polls this weekend.Only during the brief period of the Schulz hype at the beginning of the year didthere seem to be some real suspense emerging. Pretty soon it become clear thatChancellor Merkel would almost certainly garner her fourth term. Still, lots ofthings are up in the air with respect to German politics over the next four years,including the strength of Merkel’s mandate and her choice of coalition partner.    Europe - SIREN - Peter Sidorov    Both SIREN Momentum and Surprise improved on the back of positive Q3datareleases this week, especially the flash September PMIs, with SIREN Surpisereaching its highest level since March. The euro area PMI surprised strongly tothe upside in the September flash reading, with the composite index up 1ptto 56.7(exp. 55.6), just below the cyclical highs seen in the spring. The risewas seen in both sectors, with manufacturing reaching new cyclical highs, ledby Germany. However, the flash PMIs implied a services-driven fall of almost1pt in the periphery. Elsewhere September German ZEW improved more thanexpected (17vs 12mkt. exp). Among hard data releases we had the July euroarea construction improving by 0.2% mom. The improvement was broad basedacross euro area countries except for Netherlands and Belgium.    Credit Strategy - Early Weekend Reid - Craig Nicol    Next up is our hot off the press Long-Term Asset Return Study entitled “The NextFinancial Crisis”. This year’s report looks at the frequency of financial crises andshocks through history and speculate as to where the next crisis may originate.On a similar theme our Macro Bites note looks at the incredible low ranges in bondand equity markets in 2017while finally we have our latest Credit Strategy updatewhere we broadly affirm our view of carry remaining king, while also tweakingsome of our end of year forecasts to reflect recent repricing.

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