Monthly data tracker: September 2017    Recent data suggest that: 1) drug consumption grew 11.4% YoY in Augustvs. 12.2% in YTD7m17; 2) inpatient and outpatient traffic increased 5.5% and1.9%, respectively, in 1H2017; 3) growth in government spending on healthcarereached17% YoY in YTD7m2017, vs. 10% in 2016; 4) vitamin C prices remainedhigh; 5) the price of 6-APA and 7-ACA remained flat in September; 6) TCM rawmaterial prices were mixed; and 7) the corn price increased to RMB1,726/ton inSeptember.    Government spending, drug consumption, patient traffic and insurance    Growth in government spending on healthcare was up 6% YoY in August 2017at RMB93bn; YTD7m17growth reached 19% compared with 10% YoY in 2016.Meanwhile, growth in drug consumption fluctuated and reached 11.4% YoY inAugust 2017; YTD7m17growth was 12.2% vs. 12.0% and 14.2% YoY in 2016and 2015, respectively. Inpatient traffic continued to outpace outpatient flow,with the former up 5.5% YoY and the latter rising 1.9% in 1H2017. In July,urban basic medical insurance inflow rose 54% and outflow increased 50%. Forcommercial insurance, the inflow of healthcare insurance declined 30% YoY inJuly 2017, while the outflow of healthcare insurance continued to grow at 32%YoY. However, on a YTD basis, inflow grew 5% vs. 26% for outflow.    Vitamin C prices remained high; 6-APA and 7-ACA prices stayed flat    Domestic vitamin C prices remained high with an ASP of RMB70/kg in September2017, while imported vitamin C prices were up 6% to USD6.2/kg in July. The priceof 6-APA was stable at around RMB210/kg in September 2017. The ASP of 7-ACA was at RMB360/kg, unchanged MoM. We remind investors that the mainmanufacturers had resumed the production of 7-ACA in September 2015at a 16%price cut from RMB630/kg in June 2015.    TCM raw material prices were mixed    The TCM raw material price index turned on its recent uptrend and was down0.11% MoM to 1,295. The ASP of honeysuckle increased 15% while that ofindigowoad root was stable in September 2017. Honeysuckle and indigowoadare the main ingredients in Shineway’s flagship product, Qing Kai Ling. Theophiopogon root price increased 5%, while the price of radix ginseng was down9% in September – these are the main ingredients in Shen Mai.

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