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China Energy &Chemicals –Week to Sep 11:First Open Bidding Confirms End Market Can Afford Higher Gas

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.10.12 16:00:03   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 87 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

Open bidding for natural gas with total volume of 4 mn cbm on September 12:This was according...

Open bidding for natural gas with total volume of 4 mn cbm on September 12:This was according to the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange(SHPGX). PetroChina’s Eastern Gas Sales Company was the vendor. The city gateprice in each province was the floor and price increases of up to 20% wereallowed during the bidding. More open bidding is likely to be arranged in thefuture (see report). We believe this bidding implies that 1) PetroChina is likely toenjoy a gas premium during the winter; 2) the city gate price cut of Rmb0.1/cbmhas already removed the tariff risk for PetroChina.    Bidding results are encouraging – they confirm that end markets can affordhigher gas prices: All the gas contracts were sold at the maximum price, at a 20%premium to the city gate price in each province. Besides, the bidding wascompleted within 30 minutes of the start in the afternoon of September 12,implying that end demand is strong even with a 20% price premium. This furtherconfirms our view that the market-oriented gas price reform doesn’t warrant agas price cut. It should be determined by China’s natural gas cost curve andsupply-demand equilibrium. As a result, it is likely to increase from the currentlevel. (Gas Price Reform – from Semi-Regulated to Fully Market-Oriented)LNG price rose 3% last week, to US$10.3/mmbtu: Overall, supply and demandremained largely stable last week. LNG prices increased in Shandong, and East,North, Northwest and Southwest China. They declined in Central China andremained stable in Northeast and South China.

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