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China Property:NBS Aug 2017Data,Growth picked up modestly

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.10.12 16:00:03   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 80 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

August data showed a modest pickup. We expect sales growthto decelerate in Sep/Oct given a hi...

August data showed a modest pickup. We expect sales growthto decelerate in Sep/Oct given a higher base, slowdown inlower tier cities and shortage of saleable resources. For newstarts, we maintain our forecast at +6% for 2017, implyingslower YoY growth in new starts in 2H17 vs. 1H17 (+15% YoY).    August property sales showed slight YoY growth: Sales grew 2% and 4% involume and value terms, respectively, in August 2017, versus 0% and 4% in July2017. Sales MoM growth at 4% in August 2017 is similar to that in 2016, as we aremoving to traditional peak season. However, we expect YoY growth to deceleratein Sep/Oct given a higher base (Sep/Oct 2016 sales +61%/+38% YoY) and gradualslowdown in lower tier cities demand. Some developers might be faced with theissue of shortage of saleable resources in peak season given government pricecap measures.    Land market continues to be active: Land transaction area increased by 4% YoYin August vs. 24% YoY in July 2017, and the transaction amount rose 51% YoY vs.    53% in July. Developers remain hungry for landbanking. The implied land priceper sq m increased 45% YoY in August.    New starts increased 10% YoY, reversing from negative growth in July: Floorspace new starts grew 10% YoY vs. -3% YoY in July 2017. Residential propertyinvestment growth expanded further to 11% YoY vs. 9% YoY in July, given activenew starts and land acquisition activity.    Completed inventory continues to destock: National completed but unsoldresidential inventory fell a further 3% MoM in August 2017 to 332mn sq m vs.    342mn sq m in July 2017.

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