Global Macro Weekly Digest (Issue 94):ECB September meeting preview,signals are more likely than for
This week, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday (September 7th), two wee...
This week, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday (September 7th), two weeks after Draghi’s tight-lipped speech in Jackson Hole. As the current asset purchase program will end in December, the ECB has to make a choice of either extending the current QE program or starting QE tapering at the beginning of next year, if not at this week’s meeting then at the October’s meeting. With little meaningful hints so far, on the ECB’s future moves, we expect the central bank to delay any formal announcement of changes to its monetary policy until the October meeting. Thus, the focus of September meeting would be possible signals sent by Draghi during press conference, as well as the updated economic projections by ECB staff members. As we have mentioned before, the ECB is facing a complicated situation: the conflict between the resilient economic recovery and the scarcity of eligible German debt versus the still subdued inflation. Specifically, the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.6% QoQ for both 1Q and 2Q, with recent data pointing to continued economic expansion and we have seen no signs showing that the impressive economic performance could end soon. Besides, after almost 3 years of bond buying, the ECB’s balance sheet expanded from EUR 2.05 trillion (20% of GDP) to EUR 4.28 trillion (40% of GDP). More important, the ‘scarcity’ of eligible debt has become a notable technical issue. The German sovereign bonds purchases have been falling in recent months, as the 33% limit is about to be reached (around 1Q 2018); and due to the capital key restriction, replacing the German bonds with other sovereign bonds could only be a temporary solution which cannot last long. So, without any adjustments to the purchasing rules, such technical limits suggest the need for QE tapering in next year. However, despite the recent mild recovery of the region’s inflationary pressure, the HICP inflation is expected to stay below the 2% target at least until next June. The August HICP picked up in the headline reading (increased from 1.4% YoY to 1.5% YoY) as energy prices recovered; but the core measure remained unchanged at 1.2% YoY, suggesting that the increase may be short-lived and not self-sustaining. Moreover, despite some gradual improvements, Eurozone countries continue to suffer from high unemployment and low wage growth, which will hinder the development in inflation. According to the ECB’s inflation projection, significant improvement of inflation will not show up until June 2018. Given such an outlook, we still keep our baseline case that the ECB could start gradual tapering in 2018, but do not rule out the scenario that it will extend the current asset purchase program for several months before tapering, in order to see clearer improvements of inflation. Especially, the euro has appreciated against the US dollar by more than 13% this year, which could put downward pressures on inflation further, which strengthened the case to delay the formal announcement of changes to ECB’s monetary policy until October. But we expect Draghi to hint again on the press conference that the current pace of purchases need not be sustained in 2018. Due to the still lower-than-target inflation and the strengthened euro, we only expect tiny steps of tapering and the interest rates should remain at current levels throughout next year. In sum, formal announcement of any changes to ECB’s monetary policy is expected to be delayed until the October meeting, but we will focus on some possible signals regarding the QE tapering next year. Based on the sluggish inflation outlook, we maintain our previous view that the ECB could even announce to extend the current asset purchase program for several months before announcing the tapering, if it does not see convincing signals on improvements of inflation by its October meeting.
声明:如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益,请联系邮箱:wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。
热词推荐
MORE+- 1看似风雨飘摇,实则稳如老狗
- 2人民币贬值对股票有什么影响?人民币贬值
- 3什么是融资融券?什么是融资融券业务?
- 4今天一早这创业板是要遭到灭m吗?1300多只跌了1208多!周末出了个禁止限售出(易天股份300812)
- 5这个票一路跌下来,没有几个人是挣了钱的,在低位这样跌,就是想吸筹码 (科安达002972)
- 6西陇科学去年年底财务造假,被证卷会惩罚过.他属于黑名单上的股 (西陇科学002584)
- 7昨天跌停打开拉高,是有机构扛不住了,想借拉高出货,同时骗散户接盘[偷笑]但是从趋(海能达002583)
- 8海能达濒临破产。举步维艰。发展遇到了危机。但金融世界不乏绝地逢生案列。公司本身也(海能达002583)
- 9这种出个报告磨磨唧唧的,是特别不正常的,暗箱操作的公司这种特征非常明显,我记得康(好想你002582)
- 10单机柜超千万!广达电脑代工英伟达GB200!(N信音301329)
- 11板块上啦,你 是绩优股,若不回封,也没关系 滴,别盲目跟进哈!主力吃货4000万(通达动力002576)
- 12净值百亿的光伏新秀日月光能、借小壳上大市(明牌珠宝002574)
- 13美吉姆,今天成功上板,按照昨天计划今天低点上奈何没给机会,只能恭喜胆大的朋友们了(深中华A000017)
- 14金隅集团:尊敬的投资者您好!万亿增发国债资金已经基本落实到1.5万个具体项目,超(金隅股份601992)
- 15卧造!卧造!这榜一一家3000万独大,就这么个盘,它不出来没人会去接。所以想都不(华生科技605180)
- 16今日尾盘操作,明日主要做(商络电子300975)
- 17周五是黑色的!公布明天操作!(商络电子300975)
- 18商络电子,你以为主力能预测到首飞是否成功?!这是谁都不可能预测到的!所以上周五主(商络电子300975)
- 19四月中旬,路边的野花也要采续之:连续买入带盘中T,低空经济板块。(苏交科300284)
- 20今天重点看这几支(商络电子300975)
- 21商洛电子,连续涨停到25元钱。(商络电子300975)
- 22知行合一 首次减仓!(N华利300979)
- 23这个是小盘股,很容易被主力操控的,明天什么样的情况都可能发生。(龙高股份605086)
- 24这是在洗盘。看看我分析的有没有道理(立新能源001258)
- 25计划减持九联科技的通告(九联科技688609)
- 26陷阱还是机会(永茂泰605208)(04-26)
- 27相对低估的电力设备潜力股:1、总市值低,55亿,业绩优秀(去年3亿)今年大概率微(望变电气603191)
- 28我发现很多人真的不会炒股。变压器的毛利率才15左右,而变压器所需要的原材料硅钢6(望变电气603191)
- 29望变电气:最低估值的变压器明珠,变压器、取向硅钢、智能电网、储能、输配电多龙头,(望变电气603191)
- 30总结,不如预期,主力想拉升奈何形不成合力,只能反向砸盘,周一不反包就得走(王力安防605268)
- 上海贝岭股吧
- 浙大网新股吧
- 华东科技股吧
- 隧道股份股吧
- 深赛格股吧
- 光大银行股吧
- 中国银行股吧
- 永鼎股份股吧
- 苏州高新股吧
- 新安股份股吧
- 精达股份股吧
- 中国医药股吧
- 东风科技股吧
- 金健米业股吧
- 西部资源股吧
- 招商银行股吧
- 中联重科股吧
- 中国宝安股吧
- 中集集团股吧
- 德赛电池股吧
- 复星医药股吧
- 宇通客车股吧
- 中国建筑股吧
- 葛洲坝股吧
- 大唐电信股吧
- 华丽家族股吧
- 罗牛山股吧
- 中色股份股吧
- 京东方A股吧
- 新疆天业股吧
- 天坛生物股吧
- 抚顺特钢股吧
- 锦龙股份股吧
- 云天化股吧
- 振华科技股吧
- 国中水务股吧
- 华发股份股吧
- 飞乐音响股吧
- 青岛双星股吧
- 中国核电股吧
- 中国中铁股吧
- 西部矿业股吧
- 时代新材股吧
- 科达股份股吧
- 士兰微股吧
- 浦发银行股吧
- 中金黄金股吧
- 哈投股份股吧
- 航天晨光股吧
- 同仁堂股吧
- 维维股份股吧
- 福耀玻璃股吧
- 新五丰股吧
- 中航资本股吧
- 中金岭南股吧
- 丰原药业股吧
- 四环生物股吧
- 哈药股份股吧
- 万向钱潮股吧
- 中国高科股吧