Consumer confidence in China rose to a ten-year high. Imports and short-termconsumer loans soared. Yet retail sales are stable rather than booming. Wediscuss in this note:    (1) how to explain these seemingly inconsistent signals;    (2)how long this consumption momentum can be sustained and    (3) what it meansfor growth in China and the world.    Consumption for imports and luxury goods booming    Consumer confidence has risen to the highest level since August 2007(Figure1). Our banking team recently highlighted China's consumer debt boom. China'simports (excluding processing trade) increased by USD 120billion in H1compared to USD 80billion in the US (Figure 2).    But retail sales growth has been stable in China. Some luxury and discretionarygoods are doing well, such as high-end liquor and SUVs, but the "consumptionboom" seems to be selective rather than broad based.

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