Mexican elections update。    Headlines in Mexico suggest former first lady and PAN Presidential hopefulMargarita Zavala will leave her party and run as an independent. The headlinescome in the midst of the negotiations to determine the mechanism through whichthe PAN, PRD, and MC alliance will pick their Presidential candidate. In a MacroNote, we briefly summarize the context in which Zavala might have come to herdecision to leave the PAN and some of the likely implications of an independentZavala candidacy.。    Nevertheless, in terms of the market impacts of this development, the MXNunderperformed the rest of LatAm FX following the headlines selling off by around1.1% while the BRL posted a loss of 0.7% and both the CLP and COP gainedground against a strengthening USD. The peso's price action is consistent withinvestors perceiving that the likelihood of an AMLO victory has risen. But whileit seems very clear that Zavala will cease to be a member of the PAN in theupcoming days, it is still too early to tell whether Zavala's decision will bring aboutan early end to the uncertainty regarding next year's election.。    The next important date on the Mexican electoral calendar is October 8th, whichis the deadline for prospective independent candidates to officially register theirinterest in running with the INE. But even if she does announce her interest inrunning, Zavala would have to collect around 800k signatures among Mexicanvoters between November and February in order to appear on next year's ballot.Only then would she become an independent Presidential hopeful and most likelyalso an unexpected advantage for AMLO's candidacy.。

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