Railcar loadings 4-week moving average +2.9%. Weekly loadings up 0.4%。    The 4-week moving avg of chemical railcar loadings increased 2.9% in Week#33(ended 08/12/2017) vs. a 2.1% increase the prior week. Loadings YTD areup 0.65%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 20% of total US chemicalshipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trendof broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measureof weekly loadings increased 3.9% YoY (versus a 6.5% increase in the priorweek) and decreased 3.1% sequentially (vs. a 3.4% increase in the prior week).。    Ethane prices up 1.3c/gal to 28.3c/gal. Propane down 2.2c/gal to 74.8c/gal。    Ethane prices were up 1.3c/gal last week to 28.3c/gal (vs its fuel value of 19c/gal). While US ethane supply/demand (s/d) fundamentals remain loose,ethane rejection, which peaked at 500-600k bpd in 1H16, has declinedfollowing the September ’16start-up of Enterprise Products 200k bpd ethaneexport facility in Houston. Starting in 2H17, we expect US ethane s/fundamentals to tighten further, driven by 600k bpd of new demand from thestart-up of 8greenfield ethylene crackers in ’17-’19. As the market tightens,we expect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of ~10c/gal vs its fuelvalue, with the premium reflecting fractionation, transportation and storagecosts. Based on DB’s ’17US Natural Gas price forecast of $2.93/MMBtu, weestimate ethane prices will move toward 30c/gal by year-end ‘17.。    Propane prices fell 2.2c/gal last week to 74.8c/gal. While propane inventorieswere up 2% last week to 69MM bbls, they are 19% and 12% below their 3and5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventories to declinedue to higher exports (+20% in ’16vs up 12% in ‘15, up in ’17E).。    Spot ethylene up 0.1c/lb 23.9c/lb. Margins down 0.2c/lb to 7.9c/lb。    Spot ethylene prices increased 0.1c/lb last week to 23.9c/lb (vs the Julycontract price of 29.25c/lb). Spot deals for August ranged between 23.25-24.5c/lb with deals for September delivery ranged between 24.875-25c/lb. Averagespot ethylene margins compressed 0.2c/lb last week to 7.9c/lb due to higherethane and butane productions costs.。    Polymer grade (PG) propylene spot prices were higher last week with deals forAugust delivery at 39c/lb. July propylene contract prices settled up 0.5c/lb at39.0c/lb for PG and 37.5c/lb for chemical grade. Propylene prices, which hadrisen 21c/lb, or 68% (for PG), from December to March, fell 14c/lb, or 27%, inApril/May due to improving refinery-based supply. After rolling over flat inJune, July contracts settled higher driven by production outages at Flint HillsPDH (restarted following completion of planned maintenance which began inApril) coupled with the delayed start-up of the new Enterprise PDH unit(reported to begin operation in September).。    2% of North American ethylene capacity expected to be offline in August。    Per IHS, all US ethylene capacity was operational last week. Nova Chemical’sSarnia, Ont cracker (2% of North American {NA} ethylene capacity) will beoffline starting mid-August as it undergoes planned turnaround work. For ’17,IHS forecasts NA ethylene production losses of 3.5B lbs, or 4.1%, of capacity.This compares to 4.5B lbs, or 5.5%, of capacity in ’16and 3.1B lbs, or 4.1%, ofethylene capacity in ’15.。

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