Railcar loadings 4-week moving average +1.3%. Weekly loadings up 1.3%.    Ethane prices The 4-week moving avg of chemical railcar loadings increased 1.3% in Week #40 (ended 09/30/2017) vs. a 4.6% decrease the prior week. Loadings YTD are up 0.3%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 20% of total US chemical shipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trend of broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measure of weekly loadings increased 1.3% YoY (versus a 1.6% increase in the prior week) and increased 3.2% sequentially (vs. a 0.7% increase in the prior week).    Ethane prices down 0.5 c/gal to 27 c/gal. Propane up 0.3 c/gal to 94 c/gal.    Ethane prices were down 0.5 c/gal last week to 26.9 c/gal (vs its fuel value of 20 c/gal). While US ethane supply/demand (s/d) fundamentals remain loose, ethane rejection, which peaked at 500-600k bpd in 1H16, has declined following the September ’16 start-up of Enterprise Products 200k bpd ethane export facility in Houston. Starting in Q4’17, we expect US ethane s/d fundamentals to tighten further, driven by 600k bpd of new demand from the start-up of 8 greenfield ethylene crackers in ’17-’19. As the market tightens, we expect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of ~10c/gal vs its fuel value, with the premium reflecting fractionation, transportation and storage costs. Based on DB’s ’17 US Natural Gas price forecast of $2.93/MMBtu, we estimate ethane prices will move toward 30 c/gal by year-end ‘17.    Propane prices rose 0.3 c/gal last week to 94.3 c/gal. While propane inventories were down 1% last week to 78MM bbls, they are 17% and 9% below their 3 and 5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventories to decline due to higher exports (+20% in ’16 vs up 12% in ‘15, up in ’17E).    Spot ethylene down 1.7 c/lb to 29 c/lb. Margins down 0.2 c/lb to 12.4 c/lb.    Spot ethylene prices fell 1.7 c/lb last week to 29.0 c/lb (vs the September contract price of 35.25 c/lb, and August contract prices of 31.25 c/lb). Spot deals for October ranged from 28.5 to 29.5 c/lb with deals for November delivery ranged between 28.5-29.5 c/lb. Average spot ethylene margins compressed 0.2 c/lb last week to 12.4 c/lb as lower selling prices more than offset lower production costs.    Polymer grade (PG) propylene spot prices were higher last week with deals for October delivery ranged between 48-48.5 c/lb. September propylene contract prices settled up 7 c/lb at 46.5 c/lb for PG and 45.0 c/lb for chemical grade on the back of Hurricane Harvery supply disruptions. Propylene prices, which had risen 21 c/lb, or 68% (for PG), from December to March, fell 14 c/lb, or 27%, in April/May due to improving refinery-based supply. Prices rose 0.5 c/lb in July and August.    10% of US ethylene capacity remains offline due to Hurricane Harvey .    Per IHS, approximately 10% of US ethylene capacity remains offline as a result of Hurricane Harvey. IHS Nova Chemical’s Sarnia, Ont cracker (2% of North American {NA} ethylene capacity), Dow’s Taft, LA (#1) cracker (1.6% of NA ethylene capacity), Dow’s Taft, LA (#2) cracker (1% of NA ethylene capacity) and Shell’s Deer Park, TX cracker (3% of NA ethlylene capacity) will be offline in September for planned turnaround work. For ’17, IHS forecasts NA ethylene production losses of 5.2B lbs, or 6.3%, of capacity. This compares to 4.5B lbs, or 5.5%, of capacity in ’16 and 3.1B lbs, or 4.1%, of ethylene capacity in ’15.

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