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Asia Economics Monthly:From strength to strength

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.10.16 11:30:05   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 97 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

China: We expect a modest policy-led slowdown in growth to 6.6% in Q3 from 6.9% in Q2, as a c...

China: We expect a modest policy-led slowdown in growth to 6.6% in Q3 from 6.9% in Q2, as a continued land market boom adds to government revenue and supports the economy.    Hong Kong: Fiscal and monetary policies are moving in new directions. The CE has proposed running down fiscal reserves to finance higher government spending while the HKMA is deliberately draining liquidity to try to manage a gradual adjustment of interest rates.    India: We think the pessimism surrounding the near-term growth outlook is excessive and unwarranted. As the GST-related issues get sorted out and a positive base effect comes into play, India's real GDP growth should return once gain to above 7% in 2H FY18, in our view.    Indonesia: GDP growth is stable at about its long-run potential, but curiously weak retail sales growth suggests all may not be as well as they appear. Inflation is low enough but the IDR depreciation recently likely will serve to convince BI to refrain from further rate hikes.    Malaysia: Recent data on exports, retail sales and capacity utilization suggest upside risk to our 2017 growth forecast. Core inflation remains low enough that BNM need be in no hurry to raise rates.    Philippines: Growth remains above potential, which should push inflation higher next year, causing BSP to start raising rates around mid-year. The return to a current account surplus should help mitigate the depreciation of the peso resulting from a narrowing interest rate gap to the US.    Singapore: Exports rebounded sharply in Q3, posing upside risks to our 2H growth outlook, while domestic demand has improved slightly.    South Korea: High frequency data point to another quarter of near 3% growth, led by a rebound in exports, despite the ongoing risks from North Korea.    Sri Lanka: GDP growth accelerated to 4.0%yoy in Q2, from 3.8%yoy in Q1. We expect a sustained recovery in growth momentum in 2H 2017, albeit below 4.5% on average.    Taiwan: A rebound in exports should guide Taiwan’s GDP growth higher to 2.3% in Q3.    Thailand: High frequency data points to stronger GDP growth of around 4% in Q3 vs. 3.7% in Q2, as exports strengthen and private investment recovers.    Vietnam: GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3, rising to 7.5% from 6.4% in 1H, supported by a larger net trade contribution, a surge in FDI, and strong credit growth.

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