Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) meets next Tuesday and we expect it to hike itspolicy rate again by 25bps, to stabilize the economy, also aiming lower inflation.    Although we expect the latter to ease, Sri Lanka is likely suffer from a relativelyhigh inflation of 5.7% in September.    In contrast, amid low inflation, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to keep itspolicy rate unchanged when it hold its MPC meeting next Wednesday, to supportgrowth. While we do not expect the BoT to lower its policy rate ahead, this view isdependent on our assumption of stronger growth in 2H. Given risks to growth, wealso see risks to our rates view tilted to the downside, While we expect Thailandto report a weaker valued added production growth of 2.0% in August, vs. 3.7%in July, we see its rebound ahead as trade activities remain supportive. Thailand'sCA surplus is also likely to widen to USD2.9bn in August from USD2.8bn in July.    Vietnam’s GDP growth is likely to accelerate further, to 6.8%yoy in Q3 from 6.4%in Q2, supported by larger budget disbursements, faster FDI implementation, andstronger credit growth. We see high frequency data supporting this view. Retailsales growth is likely to accelerate, to 11.2% in September from 10.3% in August,while growth in IP (9.0% vs. 8.4%) and exports (18.0% vs. 17.9%) also accelerate.    We expect South Korea’s CPI inflation to rise further, to 2.9% in September from2.6% in August, as demand rises ahead of the Chuseok holidays. Korea’s exportgrowth also likely accelerate, to 19% in September from 17.3% in August, aheadof the holidays. In contrast, IP growth likely to lag exports, deteriorating to -0.5%in August from +0.1% in July. We also expect a weaker services growth of 1.8%in August, vs. 2.2% in July.    Singapore is likely to see its headline CPI inflation steady at 0.6% in August, whileindustrial production growth moderate to 17.0% from 21.0% in the same period,despite the weaker bank credit growth of 5.6% vs. 5.3%.

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