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Macau:Aug GGR within recently-lowered mkt expectation range

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.10.18 16:15:10   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 104 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

August GGR grew 20.4% yoy (MOP731m/day, -1% mom), within recently-loweredmarket expectation r...

August GGR grew 20.4% yoy (MOP731m/day, -1% mom), within recently-loweredmarket expectation range (18-22% yoy). This is comforting considering thelast 10 days of the month was impacted by typhoon and Tourism Bureau'srequested to limit group tours. Thankfully, Tourism Bureau has since lifted thatban, and welcomes group tours starting September 2nd. As mentioned in ourreport "Macau: Consensus for 2H17 too conservative" (16 Aug 2017), we expectthe Street to lift 2017-18 GGR forecasts given the stronger-than-expected VIPresurgence this year. We're starting to see this consensus upgrades recently. Ourtop pick remains Wynn Macau.    Sept tough comps but October Golden Week longer.    At the moment, the market is expecting typhoon impact to be limited inSeptember as most casinos are now back in normal operations. However, wewant to highlight the tough comp in September as Mid-Autumn Festival longweekendis shifted from mid-September last year to early October this year. Givencombined holidays, October Golden Week will be slightly longer this year (8 daysvs 7 days last year). This should bode well for Macau's visitations and hoteloccupancies.    HK-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge the next catalyst for visitation growth.    The most important infrastructure project to solve Macau's visitation bottleneck isthe HK-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge. At 55-km long, this Bridge should help reduce traveltime between HK and Macau 1-hour by ferry to 30-40min by road. Recently, ShunTak (242.HK, Hold, last close: HKD3.4) announced that its consortium is amongthe 5-6 consortia approved to run coaches between HK and Macau. Compared toferries, we believe coach transport is a lot more convenient to visitors, in termsof both pick-up locations and frequencies. We expect more news on this aroundChina's National Day (Oct 1st). As of last update, the bridge should be structurallycomplete by end-2017, and may start commercial operation as early as 2018 iftestings run well.

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