This report provides a weekly update on upcoming issuances in EMEA local bond markets. While we provide details on issuances, we also evaluate the attractiveness of bonds on auction based on our DB valuation models. In addition, we incorporate a cross-country analysis on local bonds, summarizing recent auctions as well as explaining the issuance mix/strategy for each country. The report will develop over time, and we are planning to incorporate more EMEA countries. For now we cover the following countries: Czech, Hungary, Israel, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and Romania.    Tuesday: South Africa will issue three fixed bonds; R2035 (900mn), R2044 (ZAR850mn) and R2048 (900mn). On Friday they follow with three linkers. All three fixed bonds have generated good interest this year, with the Jan-44 bond showing a bid/cover of 3x in the last auction, while demand was also robust for the other two bonds with bid/cover of 2.8x and 4x, respectively. We also note that last week’s auctions were strong particularly in R2048. Overall valuation for bonds on auction is less attractive. Although R2035 is trading 9bp cheap vs fair value, this bond has been trading 11bp cheap on average over the last six months. R2044 is 2bp cheap while R2048 is 3bp rich. The deterioration in the attractiveness of the bonds has been driven by the outperformance of those bonds in recent week (bear-flattening in bond curve). Right now, our models see R208, R2030 and R2040 as the three most attractive bonds on the curve.    Wednesday: Czech will issue three fixed bonds, Oct-23, Feb-27 and a new 15Y bond Oct-33. The expected size of the auction is CZK 4bn each and interest in recent auctions as been decent, but not strong. For bonds on auction Oct-23 is currently 2bp rich vs the fair value, however, the bond has been trading 7bp rich on average over the last six months which implies a 5bp pickup. Feb-27 is currently 7bp cheap vs fair value and provides 3bp pickup. However, in the long-end we still favour Aug-28 (8bp cheap) while also May-30 looks somewhat more attractive. For the new Oct-33 bond we expect a yield of ~1.65%.    Wednesday: As always Russia will issue on Wednesday, however more details will only be announced on Tuesday. In recent auctions interest was particularly strong. On the curve Jan-23 and Mar-33 remain our favourite bonds. Among the bonds most issued YTD, Dec-22 is 2bp cheap vs fair value while Sep-26 is 8bp cheap but has been trading 11bp cheap on average over the last six months which implies richness at current levels.    Thursday: Hungary will be issuing three fixed bonds this week, however, more details will only be announced later in the week. YTD, Hungary has only issued four fixed nominal bonds; 20/C, 22/B, 27/A and 31/A with the focus particularly on the first three bonds. This makes an auction of the first three bonds very likely. We expected size of around HUF 15-20bn each. Among the four bonds issued YTD, 20/C remains very attractive (5bp cheap), however, 20/A is still the most attractive bond on the curve (14bp cheap). 22/B is 7bp rich vs fair value, while 27/A 6bp. Nevertheless the latter bond has been trading 11bp rich on average over the last six months which implies 5bp pickup. 31/A is also relative attractive, although the bond is 1bp rich vs fair value, it has been trading 4bp rich over the last six month. In Hungary we also highlight the noticeable amount of switch auctions. Here 25/B is particularly attractive while 26/D is among the least attractive bonds on the curve.

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