Customs exports recorded a historical high in September. Indeed, shipments abroad jumped 35.0%y-o-y (HSBC: 19.0, BBG: 25.0) in September, accelerating sharply from 17.3% in August. Theunderlying conditions in exports are likely supported by renewed strength in electronics and somepositive price effect of key goods, but the September outcome was heavily influenced by lunarholidays that are not fully captured by typical seasonal adjustment methods or annual comparisons.    The unusually long Chuseok holidays and its timing this year likely played in favour of highexport growth, which should be reversed in the following months. First, there were a couple morebusiness days this September compared to last year, which inflated the y-o-y comparison. Simplyexcluding the calendar impact, exports per day increased 20.6% y-o-y in September, which marksa slight acceleration from previous months. In addition, there seems to have been a largefrontloading of shipments ahead of the holidays, which is likely to see a sharp technical payback inOctober. Indeed, the first 20 days exports saw only a 5.6% y-o-y rise in per day shipments, muchless than 20.6% for the full month, while this October will have 20% less working days comparedto last year.    Meanwhile, imports increased 21.7% y-o-y (HSBC 14.0, BBG: 20.6) in September, led by firmdemand in capital goods for the electronics industry. This put the customs trade surplus atUSD13.8bn (SA: 13.5) in September, widening from USD6.6bn (SA: 8.6) in August.    With the data heavily distorted by lunar holiday effect, more so than in previous years, it isdifficult to accurately gauge the strength in Korean exports. As such, we will keenly be waiting forthe October data, published on 1 November, to assess the underlying trend. However, even withthis volatility in hand, the strength in semiconductors seems to be noticeable. Facilities investmentis increasing, reflected in the rise of machinery for its production, while strong export demand islikely due to new smartphone launches from Korean and global manufacturers. For domesticdemand, we will continue to closely monitor whether the export recovery broadens into other keyindustries that have larger employment implications, such as automobiles and heavy industries,which have only shown limited signs of strength until now.

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