Indian Telecom and Media:Jio feature phone,Understanding the read-across
4G entrant Jio’s (not listed) feature phone is likely to hit markets this week, with6m units ...
4G entrant Jio’s (not listed) feature phone is likely to hit markets this week, with6m units having already been pre-booked. It stands out as a differentiated product inthe feature phone segment (INR1,000-2,000 price range) as it scores relatively betteron data functionalities and voice commands, and has an attractive pricing plan, ofINR150 tariff with daily data usage up to 500MB. For first time data users/ 2G datausers unable to afford a smartphone, representing c60% of the overall wirelessmarket, this is a viable option. The absence of popular social media apps, namelyWhatsApp and Facebook, and the requirement to recharge INR1,500 annually maylimit take-up. It comes pre-loaded with all Jio apps with a strong focus onentertainment. Incumbents may find it tough to match Jio’s offering; however newsreports (Economic Times, 22 August 2017) suggest Bharti is likely to launch anINR2,500 smartphone shortly. While we have limited data points on the potentialpricing Bharti may come up with, history suggests incumbents have had limitedsuccess with involvement in handsets bundling so far. Separately, the feature phonecomes with a TV cable and adaptor that can be plugged into a TV screen and whichallows the viewing of content on a TV screen. Success of this incremental featuredepends on pricing of the TV cable and charges for incremental data consumption. Read-across (a) We see the TV cable plus adaptor offering as negative for DTH andcable TV players as it could result in revenue leakages in the form of down trading ofplans and delayed recharges. (b) Incumbents may see accelerated churn at the lowerend of the base as feature phone subs accounts for 50% of their base and at leastc20-30% of their revenues. We see incumbents cutting voice rates in an attempt toretain these subs (c) We see feature phones sold at anything between 25m and 40mand there is a strong case for Incumbent telcos to increase capex and step up 4Ginvestments rapidly. Profitability pressures may limit their ability to invest and result inmarket share loss (d) Stringent recharge norms suggest Jio is becoming morerational on pricing; we think not, as this is more to recover the handset subsidy. Webelieve Jio will attempt to make money by leveraging its data capabilities (1.5-2xversus incumbents) via driving content usage and habit, charging for contentofferings, fibre to home offerings and cable TV services, particularly pockets whereincumbents may struggle to match Jio. Valuations: we see recent developments as negative for Bharti (BHARTI IN,INR389.5, Hold), Dish (DITV IN, INR74.9, Hold) and Idea (IDEA IN, INR77.5,Reduce). We maintain our DCF-derived TPs of INR385, INR85 and INR73,respectively, and make no estimates changes in this report. For valuation and risks,please refer to page 3.
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