Seasonal summer slowdown partly offset by commodity price gains。    Aluminum & Specialty Metals EBITDA to slip to $1.3bn (-7% QoQ) on seasonalmanufacturing shuts of aerospace and automotive industries, despite LMEaluminum averaging 5% higher QoQ. However, compared to the year agoperiod EBITDA growth could see a 25% improvement largely due to highercommodity pricing. Net Debt is likely to decrease 3% QoQ to $10.2bn onstronger commodity pricing and as capex projects ramp. Secular ramp of nextgenaircraft and engines and share gains by aluminum in the Automotivesector lead us to re-it Buys on Downstream names Arconic and Constellium.However, rising commodity momentum benefits Alcoa (and Century) the most.。    London Metals Exchange climbs higher, NA demand continues to grow。    LME aluminum gained $202/ton, or 11% to quarter-end, closing at $2,111/ton,and averaged $2,012/ton (+5% QoQ) for 3Q17. However, regional premiumswere 4-13% lower sequentially, averaging $138/ton in Europe, and $172/ton inthe US. NA apparent demand for aluminum (through August) annualized to12.5m tons (+8% YoY). Allegheny Technologies surcharges fell 18% QoQ, butstainless steel prices remained flat, likely on higher end-market demand.。

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