Our latest bottom-up tally of Q3 inflation-adjusted output points to less of adrag on the economy from hurricane-related disruptions than we had originallyanticipated. As a result, we have revised up our Q3 real GDP growth forecast70 basis points (bps) to 2.7% and lowered our current-quarter projection 30bps to 2.8%. At this point, we have not made any changes to our 2018 or2019 growth estimates of 2.2% and 1.9% (Q4/Q4), respectively. Regardingnext Friday’s advance Q3 real GDP report, the main driver of our upgradedestimate was the exports sector. Previously, we had been expecting substantialdeclines in chemicals and energy exports due to the shuttering of activity in theGulf of Mexico region. However, the August international trade data showedmeaningful upward revisions to net exports whereby even if we assume someweakness in September, we are still likely to see a positive overall contributionto growth from the external sector. In our Q3 forecast, we project exports growthof 2.3% (versus 1.9% in Q2) while imports are expected to rise a lesser 1.0%. NextThursday's advance goods trade balance data for September should shed furtherlight on Q3 trade developments.    With respect to the other components of Q3 real GDP, we expect real PCEgrowth of 2.0% (versus 3.3% in Q2). Some of this downshift reflects expectedweakness in services spending, in particular electric utilities. Recall that inQ2, electricity expenditures surged 24% annualized, the third largest gain inthe post-recession period. Hence, we should see some payback from thiscategory, which may be exacerbated by the wide-spread outages in the wakeof the hurricanes. In addition, retail control, which is an excellent proxy for goodsspending in the GDP accounts, points to a moderate deceleration in Q3 PCE goodsexpenditures following a relatively robust 5.4% gain in Q2.    The largest hurricane-related impact on GDP may come from structuresspending, which we estimate to have declined -5.0% in Q3 (versus a 7.0%gain in Q2). This is partly a function of storm-related disruptions to the energysector, which had been the sole driver of the nearly 11% annualized increasein nonresidential structures spending in the first half of the year. Indeed,energy-related expenditures accounted for over 10% of the gain in nonresidentialequipment spending (capex) in H1. However, given the still-sturdy momentumin core durable goods orders through the first two months of Q3 and continuedstrength in forward-looking factory-sector surveys such as the manufacturing ISMand Chicago PMI, we continue to expect a solid 8% gain in capex spendingin Q3. Note that next Wednesday’s durable goods orders report for September should sharpen forecasters’ estimates for equipment spending ahead of Friday’sGDP release.

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