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Kweichow Moutai:3Q17result strong beat;reiterating Buy

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.11.14 16:30:04   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 54 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

Around 70% yoy volume growth for mainstream Moutai (DB estimates).To recap, Moutai indicated ...

Around 70% yoy volume growth for mainstream Moutai (DB estimates).To recap, Moutai indicated on August 28that it supplied 6,200tons ofliquor (including 5,600tons of "Feitian Moutai" and 600tons of otherSKUs) between August 15and September 30, to meet the strong demandduring National Holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, implying 70% yoygrowth.    Strong growth of super premium Moutai. We estimated that most of 600tons of other SKU are super premium Moutai. This drives mix-upgrade formainstream Moutai.    Strong growth of mass market Moutai products. According to news fromMoutai website, mass market Moutai sales increased over 200% yoyin the first 9months. This is a result of Moutai's "133" brand strategy(one core brand, three strategy brands - Huamao, Wangmao, Laimao,and three key brands - Hanjiang, Renjiu and Wangzi). Meanwhile, thenumber of domestic distributors increased by 634YTD to 2,965, mainlyfor penetration of mass market Moutai.    Net margin expanded 440bps yoy on operating leverage    Moutai's gross margin was stable at 75% in 3Q17, as the impact from lowermargin mass-market products was offset by high margin customized Moutai.Selling expense ratio increased 20bps yoy to 3.2%, due to increasing A&P expensefor its "133" brand strategy and "5+5" channel strategy (5core markets and 5potential markets). G&A expense ratio declined 480bps yoy , mainly helped byoperating leverage.    Increasing transparency in revenue recognition    Moutai booked most ex-factory shipments as revenue in 3Q17. This is differentfrom market's and our expectation that it would allocate the shipments into salesand advances from customer accounts. Therefore, advances from customers were stable at Rmb17bn on Sep 30(vs Rmb18bn on June 30). This partlycontributed to the results beat in 3Q. We believe this implies increasingtransparency and improving cooperate governance for the company.

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