Railcar loadings 4-week moving average +4.7%. Weekly loadings up 6.2%    The 4-week moving avg of chemical railcar loadings increased 4.7% in Week#42(ended 10/14/2017) vs. a 2.9% increase the prior week. Loadings YTD areup 0.6%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 20% of total US chemicalshipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trendof broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measureof weekly loadings increased 6.2% YoY (versus a 10.4% increase in the priorweek) and decreased 0.7% sequentially (vs. a 1.5% decrease in the prior week).Ethane prices down 0.7c/gal to 25.8c/gal. Propane down 3.4c/lb to 90.4c/galEthane prices declined 0.7c/gal last week to 25.8c/gal (vs its fuel value of 19c/gal). While US ethane supply/demand (s/d) fundamentals remain loose,ethane rejection, which peaked at 500-600k bpd in 1H16, has declinedfollowing the September ’16start-up of Enterprise Products 200k bpd ethaneexport facility in Houston. Starting in Q4’17, we expect US ethane s/dfundamentals to tighten further, driven by 600k bpd of new demand from thestart-up of 8greenfield ethylene crackers in ’17-’19. As the market tightens,we expect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of ~10c/gal vs its fuelvalue, with the premium reflecting fractionation, transportation and storagecosts. Based on DB’s ’17US Natural Gas price forecast of $2.93/MMBtu, weestimate ethane prices will move toward 30c/gal by year-end ‘17.    Propane prices declined 3.4c/lb last week to 90.4c/gal. While propane    inventories were flat last week at 79MM bbls, they are 16% and 9% belowtheir 3and 5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventoriesto decline due to higher exports (+20% in ’16vs up 12% in ‘15, up in ’17E).Spot ethylene up 1.3c/lb to 29.8c/lb. Margins up 1.3c/lb to 13.2c/lbSpot ethylene prices rose 1.3c/lb last week to 29.8c/lb (vs the Septembercontract price of 35.25c/lb, and August contract prices of 31.25c/lb). Spotdeals for October ranged from 28.5to 31.0c/lb with deals for Novemberranged between 26.5-30.0c/lb. Average spot ethylene margins expanded 1.3c/lb last week to 13.2c/lb on higher selling prices.    Polymer grade (PG) propylene spot prices were lower last week with deals for    October delivery ranged between 44.75-45.75c/lb. September propylenecontract prices settled up 7c/lb at 46.5c/lb for PG and 45.0c/lb for chemicalgrade on the back of Hurricane Harvery supply disruptions. Propylene prices,which had risen 21c/lb, or 68% (for PG), from December to March, fell 14c/lb,or 27%, in April/May due to improving refinery-based supply. Prices rose 0.5c/lb in July and August.    ~14% of North American ethylene capacity expected to be offline in October    Per IHS, CP Chem’s Cedar Bayou, TX cracker (2.1% of North American {NA}ethylene capacity) and Sweeny, TX cracker (0.6% of NA ethylene capacity), andEquistar’s La Porte, TX cracker (3.1% of NA ethylene capacity) remain offline asa result of Hurricane Harvey. Nova Chemical’s Sarnia, Ont cracker (2% of NAethylene capacity), Dow’s Taft, LA (#1) cracker (1.6% of NA ethylene capacity),Dow’s Taft, LA (#2) cracker (1% of NA ethylene capacity) and Shell’s Deer Park,TX cracker (3% of NA ethlylene capacity) will be offline in October for plannedturnaround work. For ’17, IHS forecasts NA ethylene production losses of 5.2Blbs, or 6.3%, of capacity. This compares to 4.5B lbs, or 5.5%, of capacity in ’16and 3.1B lbs, or 4.1%, of ethylene capacity in ’15.

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