We visited GCL-Poly premises in Xuzhou, noting progress in the firm’s diamond wiresawretooling efforts. We maintain our EPS forecasts at Rmb0.12 in 17E (+7.9 YoY), revised upEPS forecast from Rmb0.12 to Rmb0.13 in 18E (+8.4% YoY), and from Rmb0.13 to Rmb0.15in 19E (+9.7% YoY). With relatively high wafer prices at present vs 1H17 and ongoing costcontrols by the firm, we revise up our target price from HK$1.04 to HK$1.82. With 22%upside, we upgrade to BUY recommendation.    Retooling goes smoothly. GCL-Poly’s polysilicon wafer capacity currently stands at 20GW,vs LONGi Green Energy Technology’s (601012:CH - BUY) capacity of 12GW ofmonocrystalline silicon wafer. By end-June, just 30% of GCL-Poly’s capacity had switchedto diamond wiresaw tech, although as of now, the percentage stands at c.70%. We believeby end-2017, the completion rate will top 80%. The technology reduces cutting time by afactor of c.3-5x and reduces silicon material wastage, with a cost saving of c.US$0.1/ps.    We expect non-silicon cost will decline by c.20% after the company completes the switchto diamond wiresaws, which we anticipate will happen by early 2018.    Polysilicon: larger market space, lower cost. Currently, GCL-Poly’s polysilicon capacity isc.70,000t, representing c.17% of global capacity. Assuming that global annually installedsolar capacity will be 70GW for the following three years, we anticipate polysilicondemand of 350,000t per annum. With c.90% of wafer manufacturers located in China, webelieve annual demand for polysilicon in China will reach 315,000t. However, China’sannual polysilicon capacity is only c.200,000t. The monthly polysilicon import was morethan 10,000t (17,628t in September). The current import dependence rate is more than60%. If the government adopts a stricter stance on polysilicon imports from Korea, whichaccounts for c.40% of China’s total polysilicon imports, the potential market for domesticpolysilicon is very large. Furthermore, with GCL-Poly putting 40,000t of new polysiliconcapacity into operation in Xinjiang Province in 2018, we expect substantial cost savingsdue to low power costs in the region.    Policy motivated. On 8 November, the National Development & Reform Commission(NDRC) released Guidelines on Reforming Pricing Mechanisms, calling for solar grid parityby end-2020, to be achieved by lowering solar tariffs. We see firms with low productioncosts, such as GCL-Poly, as positioned to benefit from the more challenging marketconditions for higher-cost peers.    Upgrade to BUY. We maintain our EPS forecast at Rmb0.12 in 17E (+7.9 YoY), revised upEPS forecast from Rmb0.12 to Rmb0.13 in 18E (+8.4% YoY), and from 0.13 to Rmb0.15 in19E (+9.7% YoY). We revise up our target price from HK$1.04 to HK$1.82, representing 13x17E PE and 1.3x 17E PB, or 12x 18E PE and 1.2x 18E PB. With 22% upside, we upgradefrom Outperform to BUY rating.

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