When it comes to anniversaries, this is not ASEAN’s most memorable. The AsianFinancial Crisis (AFC) not only catalysed significant economic and financial turmoil – ascurrencies plummeted and GDP contracted– but its intensity brought political and socialupheaval, too. Fortunately, the collective reform drive and improvement in economicgovernance that has since occurred allows us to see the AFC in a more positive light.    Investors generally understand that ASEAN has come a long way since 1997. Theradical improvement in external metrics and reserve adequacy ratios clearly, ifsomewhat simplistically, tell us as much. During any semblance of financial markettremors, such as during the 2013‘Taper Tantrum’, analysts and investors rush totake stock of the region’s defences to see who is most vulnerable – history oftenreminds us that ‘fundamentals’ are often overlooked during the good times. And so,during this period of relatively upbeat market sentiment, coinciding with the 20thanniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis, we take a fresh look at ASEAN’s defences.    In this report, we look at changes over a more recent time period – since the ‘TaperTantrum’. Malaysia and Vietnam appear most vulnerable due to their relatively low level ofreserves and high external debt. Indonesia has assiduously built reserves in response toinflows, but its current account deficit appears entrenched and remains at the root ofmany of the country’s external problems. We forecast that the Philippines’ current accountwill show a deficit this year, but the country boasts a solid base of reserves, and externaldebt levels continue to fall. We discuss each country in detail beginning on page 3). WhileASEAN’s fundamentals have improved, the region faces new growth challenges, andmust continue boosting investment, diversifying growth, and accelerating reforms.

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