During the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, Minister of Housing Wang Menghui called forreinforcement of the joint ownership housing pilot programme in Beijing and Shanghai and acceleratingdevelopment of China’s home rental market. In the long run, we expect to see the emergence of a threeprongedhousing scheme in higher-tier cities, with rental housing mainly targeting low-incomeresidents, joint ownership housing aiming at middle-income residents, and private housing for higherincomeresidents. However, we believe it will take over two years for the scheme to be implemented andthus do not expect policy tightening to ease in the near future.    New policy. Beijing had already published management guidelines for joint ownership housing prior tothe National Congress, in end-September 2017. On the same day, it allocated 427 units of the first jointownership housing project among 12,000 eligible families through a lottery system. Earlier in 2013, thegovernment introduced self-occupied housing in the form of low-rent housing, economy housing, andprice-capped housing. Self-occupied housing was priced c.30% lower than the market price, with thepossibility to resell on the open market after a five-year holding period, subject to the payment of 30%capital return to the local government. Starting from October, joint ownership housing will replace selfoccupiedhousing as a key part of Beijing’s public housing system to support residents who are not homeowners. Ownership will be shared with the government, its stake depending on how much lower to themarket price the selling price will be.    Global examples. The first joint ownership housing plan was launched in the UK in 1980, in a bid toease government expenditure on public housing construction without reducing supply. Home buyers’stake would reach 25-75%. In 1995, when housing prices hit a new high, Singapore introducedexecutive condos (ECs) to help Singaporean citizens who were not qualified for housing developmentboard (HDB) flats to buy residential properties with 20-30% discount to market prices. By contrast,Hong Kong’s public housing scheme is based on both public rental housing (PRH) and home ownershipscheme (HOS) flats.    Smooth transition. Since 2013, only 36,000 self-occupied housing units have been sold on the marketwith stable prices, while the contraction of total land supply in Beijing has led to a sharp decrease ofland parcels available for self-occupied housing. Beijing authorities revised up full-year 2017 landsupply in March and doubled residential land supply to 1,200ha, with self-occupied housing landincreasing from 83ha to 200ha (c.16 times the supply in 2016). We forecast limited change in landprices and buyers’ sentiment during the transition towards joint ownership housing, as they will stillbenefit from potential capital gains. In addition, we note the government will enjoy increased pricingflexibly by varying its stake in jointly owned properties.    Supply shortage. Official statistics show that Beijing’s resident population amounts to 22m, with anannual increase of c.500,000 on average over the past 20 years, moderating to c.300,000 over the lastfive years, although the actual data may be higher. However, following the sharp decrease in landsupply, newly built sellable housing only amounted to c.100,000 units every year over the past threeyears. Meanwhile, existing residential housing reaches c.7.6m units, of which 60% were built before the1998 private housing reform, which intensified upgrading needs.    Five-year plan. According to its five-year plan, Beijing will add 500,000 units of rental housing and 1munits of sellable housing in 2017-2021, of which commodity housing, joint ownership housing, andresettlement housing will account for 500,000, 250,000, and 250,000 units, respectively. If the plan iseffectively implemented, we expect demand for residential housing to be fulfilled, thus easing theupward pressure on housing prices. However, we note market concerns about the actual land supplyrate in 2017-2021, as it recorded 47% on average over the past three years. We believe home buyers’demand for private housing stemming from upgrading needs will sustain, especially for mid-range tohigh-end residential housing. We do not think the current supply shortage can be solved in the nearfuture, and believe current austerity measures are unlikely to be removed. We think the governmentwill continue to restrict private housing prices in Beijing.

声明：如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益，请联系邮箱：wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。