Lithium Supply/Demand, pricing and battery technology shifts most topical    We hosted our second annual Lithium Supply Chain and Energy StorageConference in NYC with strong attendance. Interest in the thematic continuesto build, primarily driven by ongoing shifts in the lithium-ion battery demandprofile e.g. Tesla’s electric semi announced after-market. Presentingcompanies included Albemarle, FMC, Orocobre, Ganfeng Lithium, LithiumAmericas, Galaxy, Nemaska Lithium, Syrah Resources and Cobalt 27. Centraltopics: 1) lithium supply/demand balance and the current tight market, 2)technology changes within batteries and the growing preference for hydroxidevs carbonate, 3) the importance of China’s push into EVs, 4) likely industryconsolidation/M&A/partnerships, and 5) a debate on lithium as a commodity vsspecialty chemical. Companies remain bullish on lithium pricing with a view ofsupply disappointments and continue to highlight product quality differences.Our recent China feedback and Global Lithium Supply/Demand reports providemore detailed views on some of these topics.    Supply/Demand balance – companies see balanced-to-tight going forward    Most companies expect demand to build out with a view of at least 10years ofgrowth for lithium-ion batteries. This is led by China’s goal of 2m EVs in 2020and a c.25% EV market share target by 2025. Subsidies may be reduced inforward years as economics improve. Against this backdrop, most companiesbelieve that a lack of industry-wide expertise, technical setbacks and morestringent environmental standards for processors in China could result insupply disappointments. Additionally the challenges of processing spodumeneconcentrate below the industry standard 6% was mentioned. Challenges inChinese domestic brine supply such as altitude, colder weather andmagnesium levels were discussed. Most companies discussed plans for furthergreenfield/brownfield additions to bridge the gap. Clay options in Nevada areundergoing further R&D/feasibility work to determine viability.    Technology – moving to higher nickel and hydroxide    China continues to shift technology towards Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM)cathodes (typically c.25% battery cost), while other Japanese and SouthKorean battery-makers prefer Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA) with bothtechnologies offering greater energy density upside vs alternative cathodes.We discussed the different forms of NCM with most battery-makers planningto use 622cathodes in coming years and then 811beyond 2020. This shouldstill be positive for the cobalt market as total units sold should offset anyreduction in intensity. Lithium hydroxide is growing in importance according tomost companies, linked to NCA and higher nickel content within NCMcathodes. Within the anode (typically c.7% battery cost), the industry currentlyis split c.50/50synthetic/natural graphite with low amounts of silicon (4-6%).

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