Along with the collapse in containerboard prices this week, down RMB150/tWoW, totalling RMB1,825 or 29% since Nov 1, NDP has rolled out productionhalt plans in a bid to boost downstream restocking to rescue the price collapseHowever, we are skeptical that the same trick that worked in Jan/Feb 2017 willwork again in Jan/Feb 2018. Reiterate SELL on NDP with TP of HKD10.98 andHold on LMP with TP of HKD8.3/sh.    First, the upcoming Chinese New Year ("CNY") is much later in 2018 onFeb 16 compared with Jan 28 in 2017, with the bulk of production haltsconcentrated post Feb 13. That still leaves three months of inventorybuilds from Nov '17 to mid-Feb18. We are also headed to a slow seasonfor demand.    Second, inventory levels for downstream distributors and box makerswere less than one month in Nov 16 and three months in total now (1.5months at distributors and 1.5 months at boxboard and box makers).    Therefore, there is no need for Box makers to restock before CNY sincethey still have plenty of stock on hand.    Third, blended prices for imported containerboard continue to bec.USD137/t or 19% cheaper than Chinese domestic paper prices so anyrestocking by downstream should be done via imports.    Lastly, there were 3mt of new additions in 2H17 and 4.6mt for FY2017leaving more choices for downstream box makers to shop around for thebest prices.    As leading paper mills continue their aggressive production halt plans, theycontinue to lose market share to medium sized and small paper mills whichhave no intention to halt production. We wrote in our report "As good as it gets;reiterating Sell on NDP" on Nov 17 that NDP and LMP would lose c.2.5% marketshare in 2017.

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