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EMEA Snap:Czech Republic,The hawk that vanished (for now)

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.12.26 18:30:03   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 106 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

The CNB's Bank Board decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Thetwo-week repo rate (2W repo...

The CNB's Bank Board decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Thetwo-week repo rate (2W repo rate) was maintained at 0.50%, the discountrate at 0.05% and the Lombard rate at 1%.    The average evolution of the Czech Koruna during Q4 was strongerthan the CNB's expectations. This fact, together with lack of meaningfulslippage of actual data from current CNB's forecasts were the mainreasons behind the decision today.    The CNB delivered some tightening this month via macro-prudentialmeasures aimed to curb overheating in housing loans growth. Beyondcontaining risks to financial stability, the tightening of the buffers helpsdampen the feedback loop between property prices, housing loans,imputed rents and core inflation.    We continue to expect two 25bps hikes in 2018 (one more hike thanactually implied in the CNB's baseline). Upside risks for the call continueto be wage growth surprises and risks that the current (minority)government overspends to stay afloat. For now however, our inflationprojections remain unsupportive of an aggressive rate hike cycle in 2018.

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