July's Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1from 50.4in June, better thanmarket expectations of no change, and in contrast to a marginal slowdown in theNBS PMI. The components show that the manufacturing sector recovery hasshifted up a gear with the expansions in activity becoming more broad-based. Theonly fly in the ointment being the deteriorating employment market, with the rate ofjob shedding in sector hitting a ten month high. It is also worth noting that despitethe divergence between the official NBS and Caixin PMI in the month, thefundamental message they deliver is broadly similar. In all, we believe thateconomic activity continued to be supported by strong infrastructure investmentand improving exports. We therefore reiterate our view of a gradual but broaderrecovery in the coming quarters, led by the private sector.

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