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Latin America Weekly Spotlight

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.08.07 10:15:09   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 115 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

The monetary policy meeting minutes and industrial production will likely be the main highlig...

The monetary policy meeting minutes and industrial production will likely be the main highlightsthis week. Last week, the central bank cut its policy rate by 100bp.The main surprise came notin the move itself, which we had expected, but by more the dovish tone, which suggested BCBis inclined to maintain a 100bp rate-cutting pace at the next meeting in September. The meetingminutes, due out Tuesday, will likely be closely scrutinised by market agents to assess thecommittee’s view for upcoming decisions (please Brazil’s rates: Keep cutting for more).    Also this week, politicians are expected to return from their mid-year, two-week break and voteon the prosecutor’s request for an investigation on President Michel Temer. If the Lower Houseof Congress votes in favour of this, the Supreme Court would still have to confirm theinvestigation for Mr Temer to step down temporarily.    Also on Tuesday, looking at coincident data, we expect industrial production (IP) to havecontracted in monthly terms by 0.3% m/m, after a 0.8% m/m increase in May. If confirmed, thiswould turn into a small annual contraction of 0.2% y/y. After the recent round of political turmoil,economic activity numbers could be affected by uncertainties on the political front. Still, weremain confident that the economy is at a turning point, and upcoming releases should reaffirma more positive outlook.

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