Online shopping GMV rebounds in Dec after a soft Nov    NBS' monthly online shopping data released on Jan 18was broadly in line withour expectation. Online physical goods GMV grew 32% YoY to RMB566bn inDecember, rebounding from a soft November of 21% YoY. As new consumerlending-related regulations surfaced in late November and could have affectedDecember numbers, a healthy 32% growth rate in December alleviates someconcern that online shopping GMV in China could slow. For the full quarter, NBSdata indicates 26% YoY, broadly in-line with our assumption of 27% for AlibabaGMV growth in the same quarter.    Alibaba Dec Q preview and thoughts    BABA is due to announce Dec Q results on Feb 1st. On top of GMV growth, weexpect seasonal uptick in take rate and continued rise in commission rate, leadingto consolidated revenue of RMB79.8bn (+50% YoY), in-line with consensus. Weestimate core commerce rev to reach RMB70.1bn, up 51% YoY after consolidatingCainiao which we forecast to be RMB3.5bn. We estimate China retail rev to grow47% YoY to RMB59.8bn, including 41% YoY growth of online marketing servicesand other rev such as Hema supermarket. We expect Cloud to grow 94% YoYto RMB3.4bn, with a slight loss. We forecast 33% YoY growth to RMB5.4bn fordigital media unit. We expect non-GAAP net income of RMB27.6bn.    Beyond Dec Q results, we wonder    if our FY19top line is too soft. We forecast 55%YoY revenue growth in FY18decelerating to 37% in FY19with 416bps declinein GMV and the remainder of the delta coming from a slower rise in take rate.However, we see signs e-commerce competition could intensify in the upcoming12months which could lead to higher GMV growth as promotions stimulate sales.Acceleration of Cainiao investments could also propel a faster rise in blendedtake-rate for logistics. On the other hand, we think our assumption of only ~1%decline in non-GAAP net margin could be generous if competition and investmentintensify. In general, the stock has historically rewarded top-line growth and hasnot penalized softness in bottom-line as much, so even in the case of strongertop line and softer bottom line, we think it could perform well. We look to gaugemanagement's level of confidence in gaining market share in coming quarters.    Easing TP by 0.5% to US$208; Maintain Buy    Revenue is unchanged, but we tweak our net margin by 1% (FY18/19/20) to reflectslightly lower profitability due to competition. TP is based on an SOTP (see p.4)Risks: competition, macro, investment.

声明：如本站内容不慎侵犯了您的权益，请联系邮箱：wangshiyuan@epins.cn 我们将迅速删除。