While the recent recovery in front-month crude prices has rekindled discussion onthe pace of project sanctions across the sector, we expect heightened shareholderfocus on capital stewardship to keep large upward revisions to prior outlined2018+ budgets (modestly increasing vs. 2017) limited for several of the large capdiversifieds and the US majors. Nevertheless, improved operational efficiencies/economics is expected to normalize global project sanction activity followingtrough levels observed over the last 4 years. In fact, ~34% of Woodmac’s‘probable’ FID reserve backlog “breaks even” at $60/bbl or less at a 10% discountrate (with an average company post-tax IRR of 20% at $65/bbl Brent long-term).    Following a relatively aggressive asset-level acquisition phase (LNG-heavy) overthe last 2 years XOM screens as the leading candidate within our coverage to'jump-start' FID activity in longer-cycle development projects with go-forwardactivity likely balanced between its phased oil-focused development in Guyana(and potentially Brazil) and its clear strategic move towards capturing incrementalmarket share in LNG (Papua New Guinea, Mozambique, etc.).    Before the commodity collapse in 2014, there was an average ~33 non-OPECprojects given FID annually which contributed an average ~17,000 mmboe in totalreserves. This dropped significantly in 2014 and has remained suppressed for thelast 4 years (~18 FID projects; ~7,000 mmboe) as companies focused more onoperational efficiencies of existing projects and less on new projects. The sametrend occurred for only oil FIDs attained over the same timeframe. This pause hasalso underpinned the belief in a coming decline in global Non-OPEC productionlate this decade. Despite the material downtrend in new project sanctions overthe last few years, we view 2017 as somewhat of an inflection point with a strong2018-2019 to follow. Woodmac reported 28 sanctioned projects in 2017 (non-OPEC and non-shale projects with >50 mmboe reserves) and forecasts ~25-30projects will get sanctioned in 2018 as higher, sustained oil prices encourage arecovery in growth projects. Most of the projects in 2017 were focused on Norwayand Brazil projects, which is again the majority of 2018 FIDs, while US projectsbegin to pick up modestly in 2019 (1 US FID 2018e vs. 3 US FIDs 2019e). DetailedFID tracker and Prior 3-Year Sanction Activity enclosed.

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