No, it wasn’t    Think back for a second. June data suggested plenty of fun ‘n’ sun. PMIs had ticked upfor the most part and new export orders were rising pretty much everywhere. But thissummer turns out to be a little cloudier. Except for China’s Caixin measure, most PMIseased back last month, and so did those new export orders. India’s dipped more thanothers, but that’s partly due to short-term disruptions from the Goods and Services Taxintroduction. We were also struck by the pull-back in Japan’s PMI new export orders,which had an impressive run, but tumbled from 53.4to 50.9, the lowest in 10months.    Recent data on actual exports is a bit mixed. Korea delivered a punchy headline numberfor July, with shipments rising 19.5% y-o-y (up from 13.6% in June). However, that wasflattered by a surge in vessel deliveries - lumpy stuff and unlikely to be sustained. AsHSBC’s Japan and Korea economist James Lee notes: dig deeper and the performanceis less impressive, with growth narrowly based on electronics. Meanwhile, China’sexports disappointed, rising a mere 7.2% y-o-y last month, down from 11.3% in July,but more in line with 1H performance. Taiwan is still rockin’: shipments grew at a doubledigit annual rate for the second month in a row - electronics, plain and simple.    We also got a reminder that for all the export strength, local demand isn’t breaking higherin much of Asia. Indonesia’s second quarter GDP, rising at an uninspiring 5% y-o-y, washeld back by surprisingly weak private consumption. That and the structural decline ininflation prompted HSBC’s ASEAN economist Joseph Incalcaterra to call two morerate cuts by Bank Indonesia by the middle of next year. However, India’s central banklooks done for now, having delivered another rate cut as forecast by HSBC’s PranjulBhandari for quite some time now.    What’s striking is that despite the better tone growth numbers this year (thank exportsand China, mostly), as well as buoyant asset markets, inflation remains nailed to the floor.In China, the headline CPI eased further to 1.4% y-o-y, Japan’s held steady at 0.4%,India’s was 1.5%, Indonesia 3.9%, Australia 1.9%, the Philippines 2.8%....zzzzz. Youget the picture. Seems to us, no need for any Asian central bank to slam on the brakesany time soon. And so all eyes turn to the Fed…

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