EM TODAY

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.09.04 14:30:08   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 112 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

Market activity remains light as we head into Jackson Hole meetings, starting today. Ourecono...

Market activity remains light as we head into Jackson Hole meetings, starting today. Oureconomists believe Fed Chair Yellen’s speech tomorrow will likely be a non-event for US monetarypolicy, given that the Fed’s balance sheet unwind has largely been set up. ECB President Draghialso speaks tomorrow. Our G10 Strategy team believe that it is unlikely that Draghi willemphasise EUR strength given that there is little indication that a strong currency is weighing oninflation expectations and economic activity so far. In emerging markets, the data and eventschedule across regions will be very light today.    Our Latam Strategy team has published a note on Brazilian local USD rates. In it, we note that thebelly of the curve has sold-off since the beginning of August. After taking into consideration bothmacro and micro drivers for different tenors, an adjustment to the downside is the most plausiblescenario, in our view. We recommend selling USDBRL 03 January 2018 against buying USDBRL 03January 2020 and DI hedge by receiving DI Jan-20 at 8.675% vs. paying DI Jan-18 at 7.9775%. Theimplied USD rate is 3.025%, targeting 2.825%, with stop loss at 3.325%.

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