Commentary for Monday: This week’s data docket picks up steam with the mainevent being Friday's August employment report. We expect another solid increasein headline nonfarm payrolls (+185k forecast vs. +209k previously), driven allby the private sector (+185k vs. +205k). This should be enough to keep theunemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Given low inflation readings, marketparticipants will focus on average hourly earnings (+0.2% vs. +0.3%), whichin year-over-year terms should rise a tenth to 2.6%. Hours worked are expectedto remain steady at 35.5. From an income perspective, our forecasts suggest amodest pick up in the nominal year-over-year growth rate. However, there aresome caveats with August payrolls as we discuss below.    As always, Wednesday's ADP employment survey (+185k vs. +177k) will anchorexpectations going into Friday's release from the BLS. The former may takeon a bit more importance because we will be looking for any signs of asurge in the trade, transportation and utilities sector. Recall that Amazonlaunched an employment initiative in the first two weeks of the month, aimingto hire approximately 50k people, the majority of these workers were to staffthe company's warehouse operations. The six-month trailing average for theaforementioned subcomponent in the ADP survey is 16k. While we do not havea specific warehouse category in ADP, the BLS survey does break out the sectorand here the impact may be even more pronounced as monthly gains for thisspecific sector have averaged near-zero over the past six months. Thus, on thesurface, there would appear to be material upside risks to our payroll forecast.    However, offsetting this upside risk somewhat is the fact that BLS nonfarmpayrolls have missed consensus expectations in August for five consecutiveyears—and by a meaningful amount. Case in point, the median consensusestimate for August nonfarm payrolls has over-estimated the initially-reportedBLS figure by 41k on average over the past five years. To be sure, the range ofmisses is large, last year's miss was 38k. The largest miss over the period was78k in 2014 and the smallest was 8k the year before. This is possibly due to faultyseasonal factors, perhaps within the manufacturing sector where the initial BLSprint has been nearly -7k over the past five years compared to an average gain ofaround 17k in July. In short, while market participants may have to contend with some noise in the August payroll figures, on balance, the end result should be atrend-like year-over-year growth rate for private employment of around 1.7%.    Other data this week will provide more color on current-quarter growth. Thismorning's advance goods trade balance should widen modestly. Tomorrow'sconsumer confidence report for August (119.0 vs. 121.1) should remain elevated,similar to the University of Michigan sentiment series, which will release its finalAugust tally on Friday. The second print for Q2 real GDP (2.6% vs. 1.2%) should beclose to in line with the advance reading although it is possible growth is revisedup slightly. Thursday's personal income (+0.3% vs. Unch.) and consumption(+0.4% vs. +0.1%) data for July should reflect sturdy income growth and arebound in spending evidenced by the latest employment and retail sales data.    However, there will be increased focus on the core PCE deflator (+0.2% vs.    +0.1%).    Our forecast for July core PCE inflation would result in the year-over-year growthrate remaining at 1.5%. There is slight downside risk here because as we learnedin the July CPI report, hotel and motel prices in the CPI fell -4.9% last month.    While the equivalent series in the core PCE deflator should show a similar decline,it's weighting within the core PCE is a couple of tenths less. Hence, we believethe gain in the core PCE deflator will round up to +0.2%, whereas the core CPIrounded down to +0.1%.    The balance of this week's economic data focus on the manufacturing,construction and auto sectors. Thursday's Chicago PMI (58.0 vs. 58.9) may slipslightly but remain firmly in growth territory. The same can be said for Friday'smanufacturing ISM (56.0 vs. 56.3). The strength already seen in the regional Fedfactory-sector reports suggest slight upside risks to these figures. In general, ahealthy manufacturing sector points to further gains in business spending, whichis key feature of our Q3 real GDP growth forecast of 2.9%.    We have tempered our forecast for Friday's construction spending (+1.0% vs.    -1.3%) report for July given the modest weakness in housing starts. However,we still expect a moderate rebound in public sector spending, which plunged by-6.6% in June—the largest monthly decline since March 2002 (-8.1%). Finally,throughout the day Friday automakers will release their monthly sales figures. Ifunit motor vehicle sales (16.6 million vs. 16.7 million) stabilize then it would beanother signal that consumer spending remains on a sturdy trajectory. With jobgrowth expected to be solid, asset prices near their all time highs and consumerconfidence elevated, our forecast of 2.7% H2 real GDP growth looks increasinglylikely. -Ryan

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