PPTA data showed that July’17 Ig volumes increased by 22.3% y/y, but our senseis volumes will continue to revert back to the mean on a quarterly basis.    According to PPTA data, July'17 Ig volumes grew 22.3% y/y despite a tough comp(43% in July’16), showing significant sequential acceleration on a comp-adjustedbasis by ~65 pts vs June. We note that May and June saw momentumsequentially accelerate by 34 pts and slow by 44 pts, respectively, and we wouldcontinue to expect monthly variation in momentum trends. Though 2016 showedIg volume growth of ~9%, ~2 points above the 6-8% industry trend, commentaryfrom most major players indicates no changes to the underlying market wereobserved. 2Q17 y/y growth of 7.2% supported these assertions, in our view. Wecontinue to expect plasma volumes to revert to 6-8%, which would imply somefurther lumpiness on a monthly basis this quarter.    Grifols saw Bioscience momentum slow in 3Q17, in line with our expectation fordeceleration towards the long-term plasma growth trend in 2H17. Biosciencesorganic growth of 9.1%, which likely reflects ~1-2 pts of contribution from priceand product mix and ~7-8 pts of volume growth, represented ~130 bps ofsequential comp-adjusted deceleration. IVIG, albumin, and alpha-1 were the maindrivers behind growth. In line with the company’s messaging throughout thisyear, Grifols continues to expect Biosciences growth to moderate and return tolong-term levels of 6-7% growth given no fundamental change in the market. Wemodel ~100 bps of deceleration into 4Q16 and expect trends to further revert tothe mean.    CSL's recent profit upgrade cited "atypical market conditions", which could gosome way in explaining the robust market growth. Competitors' poor planningof raw material (plasma) collection let CSL gain Ig share, in our view, driven bytemporary restrictions relating to Gammaked (Kedrion) and Octagam(Octapharma). Further diligence suggests these restrictions were rectified duringCSL's 1H17. We think CSL share gains will be sticky and price discounting frompeers will be needed to unseat this. Based on our checks, we understand thatBiotest's Bivigam (2-3% of the US market) has been in short supply recently andcould be another (small) tailwind for CSL – driving our view that CSL is likely tohit the high end of the upgrade range. We assume CSL maintains share gains withsome downside risk via price competition from peers.

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