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EM FX:EM Flows and Risk Sentiment,Inflows dry up,but no major outflows yet

编辑 : 王远   发布时间: 2017.11.28 10:45:03   消息来源: sina 阅读数: 119 收藏数: + 收藏 +赞()

In this report, we provide an update of our EM Flow Indicator, a tool to track flows into eme...

In this report, we provide an update of our EM Flow Indicator, a tool to track flows into emerging markets that combines normalized weekly flow data from two sources - IIF and EPFR - and incorporates both local currency debt and equity flows. We also update our complementary EM Risk Monitor, which is a multi-dimensional, EM-specific measure of risk sentiment.    The EM Flow Indicator (chart below) shows that inflows to EM have dried up in recent weeks. The weekly indicator has moved close to zero (flat) from positive (inflows). However, we are not in significantly negative territory yet, indicating that major EM outflows have still not materialized. A lack of substantial outflows despite the EM sell-off suggests that the relatively constructive longer-term view on EM has not changed, and is aided by the robust global growth outlook; investors have been protecting profits and lightening risk into year-end, rather than making room for redemptions.    Note that the indicator captures flows normalized by the standard deviation, with values greater than +0.5 indicating sizable inflows and values less than -0.5 indicating sizable outflows.

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